ACB's Dilemma: To accumulate and rise? Or fall and delist?
Updated
ACB is at a critical price point at this time. The price action is still feeling the very strong downward trend that is pointing directly to $0 by no later than May.
In order to even potentially reverse this brutal downtrend, ACB must first accumulate and confirm the end of the downtrend. An accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75 is potentially in the midst of forming, and ACB will likely move around this price range in the coming months until some volatility and volume decides to push it either way.
We will get a better confirmation that the accumulation channel has likely formed if the downward trend lines are broken to the upside, while the price holds above $1.16. (in other words, ACB has to maintain above $1.16 by the close of Friday March 20 while never having a week that closed below $1.16 until then)
The weekly 20HMA indicator has the possibility of indicating the end of the Bear Market once it starts moving in a positive direction. Confirmation of the Bullish retracement is only highly likely once three criteria are met: weekly OBV closing higher than its 20MA, weekly 20HMA moving in a positive direction whilst acting as support, and ACB’s weekly price closing above the $2.75 resistance of the accumulation channel with strong volume. During retracement, ACB may retrace to its 0.618 Fib ratio of around $6.82 as the top of its retracement. Otherwise, if ACB cannot meet all three of these criteria, ACB is likely to maintain the accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75 for months.
If ACB closes below $1.16 on the weekly, it is likely to drop further into the lower accumulation area of $0.12 to $0.60 for several months and risk being delisted from the NYSE.
TLDR: ACB has to move sideways before it can move up, or else it will continue to fall. I have presented specific details above that may indicate when the selling pressure has potentially stopped and sideways movement is likely.
I will try to keep updates pertaining to this idea as the market provides new information in the coming months. I would appreciate any feedback or comments regarding this idea.
In order to even potentially reverse this brutal downtrend, ACB must first accumulate and confirm the end of the downtrend. An accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75 is potentially in the midst of forming, and ACB will likely move around this price range in the coming months until some volatility and volume decides to push it either way.
We will get a better confirmation that the accumulation channel has likely formed if the downward trend lines are broken to the upside, while the price holds above $1.16. (in other words, ACB has to maintain above $1.16 by the close of Friday March 20 while never having a week that closed below $1.16 until then)
The weekly 20HMA indicator has the possibility of indicating the end of the Bear Market once it starts moving in a positive direction. Confirmation of the Bullish retracement is only highly likely once three criteria are met: weekly OBV closing higher than its 20MA, weekly 20HMA moving in a positive direction whilst acting as support, and ACB’s weekly price closing above the $2.75 resistance of the accumulation channel with strong volume. During retracement, ACB may retrace to its 0.618 Fib ratio of around $6.82 as the top of its retracement. Otherwise, if ACB cannot meet all three of these criteria, ACB is likely to maintain the accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75 for months.
If ACB closes below $1.16 on the weekly, it is likely to drop further into the lower accumulation area of $0.12 to $0.60 for several months and risk being delisted from the NYSE.
TLDR: ACB has to move sideways before it can move up, or else it will continue to fall. I have presented specific details above that may indicate when the selling pressure has potentially stopped and sideways movement is likely.
I will try to keep updates pertaining to this idea as the market provides new information in the coming months. I would appreciate any feedback or comments regarding this idea.
Note
After this trading week ending March 6, ACB has continued trading downward, following the descending trend lines. The price however has maintained above the key support $1.16, and closed at $1.17 literally in the last minute of trading.Things aren't looking good for bulls, as the large bearish candle with small wicks doesn't seem to have found a bottom yet. Bulls will have to show up next week and hold the crucial $1.16 support, or else ACB will likely see further downside.
For those willing to risk and speculate, $1.16 to $1.00 may present itself to be a great long entry point next week, as the price action that we are seeing this week could be the very beginning stages of the accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75. Bulls have the possibility of showing up dramatically next week, as they fight for dear life holding the $1.16 support. If that occurs, expect a nice bounce from that low.
Those more conservative may want to wait until after March 20 before deciding to enter a long position, and see if ACB holds that $1.16 support on weekly closes. If it manages to hold it, it may suggest that the brutal downtrend is subsiding, and sideways movement is likely due reasons discussed above.
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