ADA/BTC Cardano is too weak stay above this historical trendline
Today, I analyze the 
ADABTC Weekly chart, Logarithmic scale. Observe where price is sitting at the time of writing. It is sitting at the crossing of two trendlines and the 0.5 Fibonacci line. This conjunction may serve as a good support for price, meaning that price would not go below 1500 Satoshi ever again. However, that's the extent of bullish factors that I could find on this chart. Let me detail my Bearish factors:
1. The volume across the entire timeline of ADA is almost non-existent when price is above the the 0.5 Fib line. Consider the 0.5 Fib line as a separator between two zones of price action. Any price action above it I call high, and below it, low. Price has traded high for a total of 33 months. It has also traded low for the same number of months. So the trade time between high and low is almost equal. However, the volume is enormously skewed towards the low price action. You can see that on the volume profile appearing on the right side of the chart. Low-price action has 5 times the trading volume of low-price action. Bear in mind that the price axis is logarithmic, so our 0.5 Fib line sitting at 1523 Satoshi does not stand exactly at the middle price between All-time high (8788 Satoshi) and all-time low (266 Satoshi). So I can easily say that 80% of trading volume has occurred in the lowest 20% of prices, and the highest 80% of prices have only seen 20% of the trading volume. Therefore, the high prices carry no significance. Trendlines mean almost much less above the 0.5 Fib line. Using that reasoning, I predict that the two lines crossing below the current price will not stand as support and that price will break below them.
2. The more touches in a bear market to a trendline, the more probable it will break on the next touch. This principle is also validated by descending triangles. I can't see an exact descending triangle pattern here, but price has been in a bearish trend for 6 months now drawing lower highs and lower lows.
But what about Fundamentals?
People get easily excited about news bites such as "Solidity is coming to Cardano", "Haskell can now run on browsers", "Cardano's Formal Verification can catch devastating flaws that cost Millions". The reality is the world is not that black and white. Most investors have absolutely no idea what any of these news lines mean. What really matters is the psychology of the market, i.e., how the market feels about these news, thus Technical Analysis!
On top of that, as a Haskell programmer and a Formal Verification specialist myself, I know full well the scalability challenges that come with such "positive" news. Ultimately, what drives price up is hype and survival instinct, not fundamentals. You can ride that wave up if you want, but when reality hits and the network clogs, some hack steals millions, or the hype withers away leaving Cardano once again a hulk in crypto space; it may be too late to implement your exit plan.
So, what next?
I anticipate price to revisit the lower rising trendline and stay in that zone to allow for redistribution/accumulation. In that phase, moving averages and oscillators like RSI will catch up. From there, we can revisit the Cardano chart to judge if it's ready for another boom.
Keep an eye on this chart. Access it here.
ADABTC Weekly chart, Logarithmic scale. Observe where price is sitting at the time of writing. It is sitting at the crossing of two trendlines and the 0.5 Fibonacci line. This conjunction may serve as a good support for price, meaning that price would not go below 1500 Satoshi ever again. However, that's the extent of bullish factors that I could find on this chart. Let me detail my Bearish factors:1. The volume across the entire timeline of ADA is almost non-existent when price is above the the 0.5 Fib line. Consider the 0.5 Fib line as a separator between two zones of price action. Any price action above it I call high, and below it, low. Price has traded high for a total of 33 months. It has also traded low for the same number of months. So the trade time between high and low is almost equal. However, the volume is enormously skewed towards the low price action. You can see that on the volume profile appearing on the right side of the chart. Low-price action has 5 times the trading volume of low-price action. Bear in mind that the price axis is logarithmic, so our 0.5 Fib line sitting at 1523 Satoshi does not stand exactly at the middle price between All-time high (8788 Satoshi) and all-time low (266 Satoshi). So I can easily say that 80% of trading volume has occurred in the lowest 20% of prices, and the highest 80% of prices have only seen 20% of the trading volume. Therefore, the high prices carry no significance. Trendlines mean almost much less above the 0.5 Fib line. Using that reasoning, I predict that the two lines crossing below the current price will not stand as support and that price will break below them.
2. The more touches in a bear market to a trendline, the more probable it will break on the next touch. This principle is also validated by descending triangles. I can't see an exact descending triangle pattern here, but price has been in a bearish trend for 6 months now drawing lower highs and lower lows.
But what about Fundamentals?
People get easily excited about news bites such as "Solidity is coming to Cardano", "Haskell can now run on browsers", "Cardano's Formal Verification can catch devastating flaws that cost Millions". The reality is the world is not that black and white. Most investors have absolutely no idea what any of these news lines mean. What really matters is the psychology of the market, i.e., how the market feels about these news, thus Technical Analysis!
On top of that, as a Haskell programmer and a Formal Verification specialist myself, I know full well the scalability challenges that come with such "positive" news. Ultimately, what drives price up is hype and survival instinct, not fundamentals. You can ride that wave up if you want, but when reality hits and the network clogs, some hack steals millions, or the hype withers away leaving Cardano once again a hulk in crypto space; it may be too late to implement your exit plan.
So, what next?
I anticipate price to revisit the lower rising trendline and stay in that zone to allow for redistribution/accumulation. In that phase, moving averages and oscillators like RSI will catch up. From there, we can revisit the Cardano chart to judge if it's ready for another boom.
Keep an eye on this chart. Access it here.
Note
My initial bearish prediction turned out to be the correct one. Both historical rising trend lines have been broken. Price dropped all the way to 479 Sats, which is the level where most trading volume had occurred. From there, we saw the recent almost 2x spike to a high of 907 Sats. A lot of excitement and questions I received from long-time ADA fans got me curious enough to revisit this idea.
I can say confidently that ADA will never see a new high versus Bitcoin. I can also say that is is unwise to hope it will even reach the rising trend line from below, which now sits at around 1500 to 1600 Sats. The volume of the recent rise is too weak to consider this a real move. Most likely, ADA will continue falling slowly versus Bitcoin hitting new lows.
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