Let's look at local movement in white box first. The down movement from May 3rd broke 3 important supports (yellow boxes 1, 2, 3) that took us to the local high. The temporary bottom on May 29th closed below box 3 on daily, which suggests that box 3 is no longer support for the current down movement. We must find support down below at possibly box 4 (2105 satoshi), or even red box (1879-1947 satoshi) which is also a weekly support level. On binance we have touched exactly the low we made on May 29th. This invalidates the elliott wave count of a new wave 1 and 2. And if you look at ADA/KRW and ADA/USDT charts, we have already broken the low on May 29th which potentially suggest where we might be heading.
The larger picture, however, offers an even scarier story. The down movement from beginning of 2018 to March 18th broke key support levels (blue boxes) but didn't test the orange box support level. And the upward move did not make a higher high. We cloud be going back down to test that support at 1214 satoshi, which is an 86% drop from ATH. It's definitely in the realm of possibility as a retrace of parabolic movement is usually 80%+.
In conclusion, short term target is yellow box 4 and red box. There will definitely be pullbacks. Be careful where you short. Longer term target is orange box, which could be a stretch. We will come back to this as new data comes in.
The larger picture, however, offers an even scarier story. The down movement from beginning of 2018 to March 18th broke key support levels (blue boxes) but didn't test the orange box support level. And the upward move did not make a higher high. We cloud be going back down to test that support at 1214 satoshi, which is an 86% drop from ATH. It's definitely in the realm of possibility as a retrace of parabolic movement is usually 80%+.
In conclusion, short term target is yellow box 4 and red box. There will definitely be pullbacks. Be careful where you short. Longer term target is orange box, which could be a stretch. We will come back to this as new data comes in.
Note
Well we just dropped below lower low on June 13th. Recent volume is low. Let's see where this is going.Note
Yellow box 4 target is hit and there's no sign of stopping. Daily time frame still has room to go down, although 4h, 6h, 12h are at the bottom. Let's see if red box holds.Note
WARNING!!! EXTREME BEARISH VIEW! I just recently discovered that ADABTC on binance is not the complete trading history of the pair. Bittrex has the complete story shown below.
On weekly chart, the white box is where we consolidated and took off to the high. The last low stopped at the yellow dash line which is supported by the green wick inside the white box. This, imo, is not really a support. We must go to 720-1173 satoshi to really test the support. However, I don't expect ADA to go there straight away. Obviously this assumption depends on when and where BTC bounces for a pullback before another drop. I supposed it will bounce around 1875-1952 satoshi for a pullback to 4000-5000 satoshi region.
We are oversold on Daily, 2D, and 3D. I don't see ADA dropping straight to the white box region.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.