ADA showing signs of potential transition to upward pressure.
Updated
Looking at the SHORT term group of timeframes: 30-min. 1-hr. 90-min. 2-hr. 3-hr. 4-hr. 6-hr. 8-hr.
In all but the 30m the Green EMA is now higher than the Energy, indicating bullish sentiment.
In the 1h the Red RSI has made contact with the Green EMA as it rises, if we close like this in about 15 minutes, we are likely to see the Energy cross above 50 on the following candle, if we close with the Energy above 56 we will be entering a period of upward pressure in this timeframe.
In the 90 too the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have made contact with the Green as it rises. Again if we close like this in an hour and 15 minutes the Energy is likely to cross above 50 on following candle.
We need to monitor the downward pressure race between the 1h and the 2h.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 1h a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 1h CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 2h CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 2h and the Red RSI in the 4h etc
Although the Energy has just crossed below 50 in the 3h, 4h & 6h, considering the concave shape of the Energy, and the level of the Energy in higher timeframes and with consideration to the fact that the Red RSI is above 50, I beleive that we will see the Energy only just dip below 50 before bouncing back. In the 8h the Energy is at level 73 with the Red RSI at 66, as a result we are likely to see upward pressure until the Energy in this timeframe crosses below 50 which is not likely to happen for at least another two 8h candles. Even then, with consideration to higher timeframes; 12h, 16h & daily, I believe we may only just dip below if at all in the 8h too. The Red RSI in the 12h has just crossed above 50 and is currently at level 53, if we can close above level 56, it is likely that upward pressure will prevail until the Energy falls to level 50 (currently level 109), this is not likely to be for at least another two 12 hour candles after the current one closes in four hours. In order to see a significant impact on price action we also want to see if the Blue LSMA can cross above 50 and the Bollinger Bands commence expansion. Until then there is no guarantee of a significant increase in price action during periods of upward pressure - we can see sideways at worst, upward at best. The Red RSI has crossed bullish above the Blue LSMA in the 16h and seems poised to cross above 50. In the daily the Green has gone up strongly with the Energy as it rises above 50.
We also currently have an upward pressure race between the Energy in the 12h & the Red RSI in the daily
When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the 12h an upward pressure race was triggered. In order for us to see a continuation of upward pressure, we need to see the Red RSI in the daily CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50. Additionally we need to see the Green EMA, higher than the Energy in the three preceding timeframes. If the Red RSI in the daily wins the race, we need to see if the upward pressure can propagate into the next doubled timeframe. So we need to see the Red RSI in the 2d CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 1d CLOSES below 50 etc etc.
In the 2d the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rises indicating upward pressure and the Energy has crossed (but not closed) above 50.
Longer term; we want to see if the Energy in the 3d can win the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 6d
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 3d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 3d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 6d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered.
In summary we are seeing signs of a potential reversal to sustained upward pressure.
We need to monitor the upward and downward pressure races for further confirmations.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
In all but the 30m the Green EMA is now higher than the Energy, indicating bullish sentiment.
In the 1h the Red RSI has made contact with the Green EMA as it rises, if we close like this in about 15 minutes, we are likely to see the Energy cross above 50 on the following candle, if we close with the Energy above 56 we will be entering a period of upward pressure in this timeframe.
In the 90 too the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have made contact with the Green as it rises. Again if we close like this in an hour and 15 minutes the Energy is likely to cross above 50 on following candle.
We need to monitor the downward pressure race between the 1h and the 2h.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 1h a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 1h CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 2h CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 2h and the Red RSI in the 4h etc
Although the Energy has just crossed below 50 in the 3h, 4h & 6h, considering the concave shape of the Energy, and the level of the Energy in higher timeframes and with consideration to the fact that the Red RSI is above 50, I beleive that we will see the Energy only just dip below 50 before bouncing back. In the 8h the Energy is at level 73 with the Red RSI at 66, as a result we are likely to see upward pressure until the Energy in this timeframe crosses below 50 which is not likely to happen for at least another two 8h candles. Even then, with consideration to higher timeframes; 12h, 16h & daily, I believe we may only just dip below if at all in the 8h too. The Red RSI in the 12h has just crossed above 50 and is currently at level 53, if we can close above level 56, it is likely that upward pressure will prevail until the Energy falls to level 50 (currently level 109), this is not likely to be for at least another two 12 hour candles after the current one closes in four hours. In order to see a significant impact on price action we also want to see if the Blue LSMA can cross above 50 and the Bollinger Bands commence expansion. Until then there is no guarantee of a significant increase in price action during periods of upward pressure - we can see sideways at worst, upward at best. The Red RSI has crossed bullish above the Blue LSMA in the 16h and seems poised to cross above 50. In the daily the Green has gone up strongly with the Energy as it rises above 50.
We also currently have an upward pressure race between the Energy in the 12h & the Red RSI in the daily
When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the 12h an upward pressure race was triggered. In order for us to see a continuation of upward pressure, we need to see the Red RSI in the daily CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50. Additionally we need to see the Green EMA, higher than the Energy in the three preceding timeframes. If the Red RSI in the daily wins the race, we need to see if the upward pressure can propagate into the next doubled timeframe. So we need to see the Red RSI in the 2d CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 1d CLOSES below 50 etc etc.
In the 2d the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rises indicating upward pressure and the Energy has crossed (but not closed) above 50.
Longer term; we want to see if the Energy in the 3d can win the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 6d
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 3d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 3d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 6d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered.
In summary we are seeing signs of a potential reversal to sustained upward pressure.
We need to monitor the upward and downward pressure races for further confirmations.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
Note
We were monitoring some pressure races, these have mainly completed in the lower timeframes, and with consideration to the fact that the Red RSI is substantially above level 50 up until the daily, there is no value in revisiting.The upward pressure race between the Red RSI in the daily and the Energy in the 12h is ongoing. In fact in the 12h, the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rose and the Energy has levelled and looks as though it could turn back up. The Red RSI in the daily still has some work to do but with the Red RSI & Blue LSMA heading up toward level 50 and the way the Energy in the 12h is behaving, the pressure is off so to speak. Currently the Green EMA is poised to cross above level 50 in the daily, as the Red RSI & Blue LSMA continue to rise we have a good chance of seeing the price action cross above the Bollinger Band basis which is likely to establish itself as support.
We would like to see the Energy move up more decisively and get above the Energy in the 1d & 2d to further confirm bullish sentiment. In the 2d the Red RSI closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rose and as a result the Energy has just crossed above 50 - we have just under 12h left of this candle, we would like to see this period of upward pressure confirmed by a close above 50.
Moving on to higher timeframes; we were monitoring the downward pressure race between the Energy in the 3d & the Red RSI in the 6d - see earlier comments. The Red RSI has closed making contact with the Greene EMA as it rises indicating upward pressure, additionally and pertinent to the race, we are now likely to see the Energy to cross above 50 at the beginning of the next candle in 2 days and 12 hours. Considering the fact that the Red RSI in the 6d is still at level 77, I would say the Energy in the 3d is firm favourite.
In summary:
Everything is still looking good and in support of continued transition to sustained upward pressure.
As previously discussed; in order to see any significant changes in price action, we need to see an expansion of the Bollinger Bands cascading up the timeframes. We can see some early signs in the 3h & 6h and the Blue LSMA has crossed above 50 in the 8h which increases the odds of the BBs expanding.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.