We may have seen a transition to sustained upward pressure
Updated
Just a quick look at Cardano.
Near term group of timeframes - (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d)
We have now seen the Green EMA higher than the Energy since the beginning of the month in the daily, we have now seen the energy and Green EMA turn up nicely after a small dip below 50. The Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have both turned back up in concert. This indicates upward pressure. During a period of upward pressure if the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are above 50, we can expect the price action to sit for the most part between the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands, we can see this has now been the case for the current daily candle, we can also see the price action with a potential to wick up to the Red upper BB. Because the Blue LSMA has turned back up we have a good chance of seeing the Bollinger Bands expanding and the price action accelerating to the upside as it remains between the upper Aqua/Orange. We can now see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in all the other timeframes in this group too as well as all the short term group of TF's (90, 3h, 6h & 12h) indicating Bullish sentiment.
In the 2d, the Green EMA has turned back up and the Red RSI has made contact with it as it rises indicating Bullish sentiment. The Blue LSMA is also turning back up toward level 50; if it crosses above level 50 we have a good chance of seeing the Bollinger Bands expand in this TF too and the price action accelerate to the upside within the Aqua/Orange upper BBs.
In the 3d the the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA are beginning to turn up while simultaneously making contact with the Green EMA as it rises and forming a Bullish cross as the Red RSI crosses above the Blue LSMA. Similarly, if the Red RSI and the Green EMA continue to turn up we have a good chance in this timeframe too to see the Bollinger Bands expand with the price action remaining for the most part between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs. The 4d is still a bit noisy and provides little decisive information.
Mid Term group of Timeframes (5d, 6d, 9d, 12d)
The Green is higher than the Energy in all this group of TFs indicating upward pressure indicating upward pressure as has been the case for a while now. It is important to remember that upward pressure does not necessarily equat to upward price action. However, we can expect sideways at worst, upward at best. We need to bear in mind that there is a large gap between the Green EMA and the Energy, this can indicate potential instability that could reflect a precarious balance with potential for a precipitous move. This by no means is an indication but more of a caution that this possibility cannot be ruled out.
In summary:
IMO we are looking pretty bullish now, and could see a continuation of a break to the upside. At the very least, I would expect to see upward pressure continue for at least another two daily candles and if the BBs do continue to expand we can see this reflected in upward price action. Remember, upward pressure means sideways price action at worst, upward at best.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
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Trade safe
aBL
Near term group of timeframes - (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d)
We have now seen the Green EMA higher than the Energy since the beginning of the month in the daily, we have now seen the energy and Green EMA turn up nicely after a small dip below 50. The Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have both turned back up in concert. This indicates upward pressure. During a period of upward pressure if the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are above 50, we can expect the price action to sit for the most part between the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands, we can see this has now been the case for the current daily candle, we can also see the price action with a potential to wick up to the Red upper BB. Because the Blue LSMA has turned back up we have a good chance of seeing the Bollinger Bands expanding and the price action accelerating to the upside as it remains between the upper Aqua/Orange. We can now see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in all the other timeframes in this group too as well as all the short term group of TF's (90, 3h, 6h & 12h) indicating Bullish sentiment.
In the 2d, the Green EMA has turned back up and the Red RSI has made contact with it as it rises indicating Bullish sentiment. The Blue LSMA is also turning back up toward level 50; if it crosses above level 50 we have a good chance of seeing the Bollinger Bands expand in this TF too and the price action accelerate to the upside within the Aqua/Orange upper BBs.
In the 3d the the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA are beginning to turn up while simultaneously making contact with the Green EMA as it rises and forming a Bullish cross as the Red RSI crosses above the Blue LSMA. Similarly, if the Red RSI and the Green EMA continue to turn up we have a good chance in this timeframe too to see the Bollinger Bands expand with the price action remaining for the most part between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs. The 4d is still a bit noisy and provides little decisive information.
Mid Term group of Timeframes (5d, 6d, 9d, 12d)
The Green is higher than the Energy in all this group of TFs indicating upward pressure indicating upward pressure as has been the case for a while now. It is important to remember that upward pressure does not necessarily equat to upward price action. However, we can expect sideways at worst, upward at best. We need to bear in mind that there is a large gap between the Green EMA and the Energy, this can indicate potential instability that could reflect a precarious balance with potential for a precipitous move. This by no means is an indication but more of a caution that this possibility cannot be ruled out.
In summary:
IMO we are looking pretty bullish now, and could see a continuation of a break to the upside. At the very least, I would expect to see upward pressure continue for at least another two daily candles and if the BBs do continue to expand we can see this reflected in upward price action. Remember, upward pressure means sideways price action at worst, upward at best.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
Note
Just a quick update to point out that even though in the higher timeframes we have confirmed upward pressure, we are seeing potential for a local period of downward pressure in the short term group of timeframes. In the 90m the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it falls and as a result we have seen the Energy cross below 50, if the Green EMA does continue to close below level 50, we can see the price action fall to the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis (currently $1.26). In the 3h we also saw a close with the Red RSI making contact with the Green EMA as it fell and as a result we have seen a dip in the Energy below 50, IMO this may well only be a small dip judging by the level of Energy in the higher timeframes - in the 6h the Energy is at level 88 and in the 12h and daily it is still rising.In the scalping group of timeframes (6, 12, 23, 45) we also can see the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in the 6m & 12m. We can however see in the 12m the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green in as it rises indicating upward pressure and we should see the Energy cross above 50 in the next candle.
We also now have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 23 & the Red RSI in the 45.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 23m a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 23m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 45 CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 45 and the Red RSI in the 90 etc.
In summary:
IMO during this (short) period of local downward pressure, we will not necessarily see significant dip in price action and upward pressure is likely to resume shortly.
Short Term
Scalping
Note
Just a quick update to point out that the Energy in the 23m did in fact win the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 45m.Also in the 90, the Green EMA did cross below 50 and the price action did fall close to the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis as suggested. The Green EMA however has retraced above 50 without a close below and looks like wanting to turn back up..
..As I said before, I'm just referring to a very local period of downward pressure in short term timeframes - this does not affect the bullish indications in the higher timeframes.
Note
A new downward pressure race has been triggered in the 45m TFWhen the Red RSI crossed below 50 in the 45m a downward pressure race was triggered. In order to see a reversal to upward pressure, we first need to see the Energy in the 45m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 90 CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 90 and the Red RSI in the 3h etc. Currently the Red RSI in the 90 is looking favourite for winning the race..
I mentioned that we were at risk of the price action falling to the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis at around $1.26 in the 90m as has now happened, if we look at the 3h we can see also that there is a potential risk of the same happening if the Green EMA crosses and closes below 50. In the 3h the BB basis is currently at $1.25 but rising.
Short Term
Scalping
Note
We now have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 90 & the Red RSI in the 3h.When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 90 a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 90 CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 3h CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 3h and the Red RSI in the 6h etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs.
As we are on the cusp it is possible that this race may be invalidated if the Red RSI retraces back above 50 (currently 49.85) before we close in 30 minutes.
It also seems likely, if the 3h closes with the Green EMA below 50 in the 3h that as suggested, we will see the price action drop to the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis in this TF (currently $1.25 but rising)
Note
The Energy in the 90 has just won the downward pressure race setting the scenes for a resumption of upward pressure. However in order to decisively confirm the victory, we need to fulfil the additional criterion that the Green EMA needs to be higher than the Energy in at least the preceding three halved timeframes. This is not the case with the 45m or the 23m, these are of course very low timeframes and things can change rapidly.. so one would need to continue to monitor if using to optimise a position.Everything still looking super bullish in the Near term TFs
Scalping
Short term
Note
KG_HPAs requested Near Term and Mid Term Timeframes images
Daily looking lovely - Green EMA at a nice position above Energy, with harmonious rise of Red RSI & Blue LSMA having crossed Green EMA as it rose. 2d too looking good, just waiting for the Blue LSMA to cross above 50 and for BBs to expand. Also as Red RSI & Blue LSMA turns up we are likely to see BBs expand and price action accelerate to the upside as it remains between the Aqua/Orang upper BBs.
Note
Just a quick update - not too much has changed....Evidently downward pressure is still prevailing in the very low timeframes - the scalping group 6, 12, 23, 45, where the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in all TFs indicating downward pressure. We are mainly concerned with these timeframes for the purpose of either scalping, optimising positions based on the direction indicated in the short term TFs (90, 3h, 6h, 12h) or providing an early warning that sentiment may propagate up from these timeframes to higher timeframes which needs constant monitoring. Currently the most important thing to monitor in these TFs is the downward pressure race between the Energy in the 45m & the Red RSI in the 90m.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 45m a downward pressure race was triggered. In order to see a reversal to sustained upward pressure, we first need to see the Energy in the 45m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 90 CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 90 and the Red RSI in the 3h etc.
the Green EMA is still higher than the Energy in all Timeframes in the Short Term group (90, 3h, 6h, 12h), Near Term group of timeframes: (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d) and Mid Term group of timeframes (5d, 6d, 9d, 12d) indicating upward pressure.
We have already seen as expected a lower high when the Energy was higher than the Green EMA in the 90m. During this period of downward pressure while the Energy is below 50, because the Green EMA is higher than the Energy we can expect a higher low normally, however there is a bit of a warning sign here in the 90m, first of all there is a good chance that the Red RSI can win the downward pressure race in the 90m thus triggering a new race between the Energy in the 90 and the Red RSI in the 3h, (I am however expecting that the Green EMA can turn back up to satisfy the higher low indication) also the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA have turned back down in concert and are headed toward level 50. We need to monitor this - we are hoping that they will not make it to level 50 but turn back up too as the Energy rises above 50, this would provide an indication of a slight rise in price action and potential to form a higher high. (we could expect the price action could go up between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs currently $1.32 & $1.335 possibly wicking up to the Red upper $1.347.
I have to go for a bit but will continue later...
Scalping Group of Timeframes
Short Term Group of Timeframes
Note
We have actually averted the risk for now and as hoped the Green EMA in the 90 has turned back up and the Red RSI and Blue LSMA have made contact with it as it rises indicating upward pressure, if we close like this the following candle will see the Energy cross above 50 and we should see a higher high as previously indicated. If the Blue LSMA can turn back up we can see the Bollinger Bands expand and the price action move up accordingly between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs.Note
We have indeed now seen both the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA in the 90 turn back up as discussed. This is very good as previously explained as it means as we can now see that the price action will sit with candle bodies for the most part between the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands, potentially wicking up to the Red upper. Furthermore as the Blue LSMA turns back up we can expect the Bollinger Bands to expand - this has already started to happen.Note
Note
We can also expect the price action to go up between the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands in the 3h (currently $1.34 & $1.38 and rising.Note
In the 12h as the Blue LSMA has turned up the Bollinger bands are also expanding. It looks like there is a strong chance of the Energy turning back up before falling to 50 and the price action to accelerate to the upside between the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands as they expand also wicking up to the Red (currently $1.4 and rising as they expand)Note
Near Term group of timeframes.Most importantly now as indicated right at the beginning of this publication we were looking at the Blue LSMA in the 2d turn up and waiting for it to cross above level 50. This has now happened. This is super bullish because we now have a high chance of the Bollinger Bands expanding in this timeframe (already started to happen) and the price action to accelerate to the upside while sitting with the candle bodies for the most part between the Aqua/Orange upper BB and wicking up to the Red upper (currently $1.5 and rising) As the BBs expand we can see potential for a very powerful move to the upside.
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