Adobe 
ADBE is set to report the firm's fiscal Q2 results on Thursday. What do the software giant’s charts and fundamentals say heading into the report?
Let’s take a look:
Adobe’s Fundamental Analysis
ADBE was one of the original "Cloud Kings" back when the cloud was going to be Big Tech’s Next Great Thing. But as the shift in what's hot for tech firms moves from the cloud to generative AI, Adobe has been trying to evolve.
Wall Street is looking for ADBE to report $4.97 in adjusted earnings per share on $5.8 billion of revenue for fiscal Q2, which ran through May. Compared to the same period a year ago, results like that would amount to 10.9% of earnings growth on 9.2% of revenue gains.
Coming into the quarter, the firm had guided investors and analysts toward $4.95-$5.00 of adjusted EPS on $5.77 billion-$5.82 billion of revenue.
However, 19 of the 26 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover Adobe have cut their earnings estimates since the latest quarter began. (Seven revised their estimates higher.)
And beyond the headline earnings and revenues, some investors will also watch closely for Adobe’s so-called “remaining-performance obligation.” That refers to revenue that the company expects to recognize within the coming 12 months.
That number came in at $19.69 billion during Adobe’s fiscal Q1, of which the firm considered 67% as "current." Wall Street will be watching for whether that number rose or fell in fiscal Q2.
Adobe’s Technical Analysis
Now let’s look at Adobe’s charts, beginning with a 13-month one:
Readers will see that ADBE reacted sharply to a “double-top” pattern of bearish reversal that stretched from June through October 2024, as marked with two red boxes at the above chart’s left.
This pattern peaked in early September, and the stock bottomed out early in this past April.
Adobe has rallied back since then, but appears to have run into some resistance close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the early September through early April downtrend. That’s the gray horizontal line third from the bottom in the gray box at the chart’s right.
Now, let's declutter this chart a little and zoom in for a focused look at what's going more recently with the stock:
Looking at this time scale, readers will see that almost all of Adobe’s price action going back to the double-top pattern’s September apex fits very neatly within what we call an “Andrews' Pitchfork” model. (Denoted by the three purple diagonal lines at right.)
ADBE rebounded off of the pitchfork’s lower trendline in early April, then got a boost from what’s called a “mini golden cross” or “swing traders' golden cross” in May. That's when a stock’s 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line above) crosses above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA, denoted with a blue line).
However, the stock recently hit a rough patch as it tried to break out from the pitchfork’s upper trendline. That makes the upper line Adobe’s upside pivot for now -- currently at about $408, which ADBE was trading above as of Tuesday afternoon.
If Adobe can definitively find support at that level, the chart doesn’t indicate any significant resistance until the stock reaches its 200-day SMA (the red line above) at about $458.
Looking at our other indicators, Adobe’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) looks healthy, but not technically overbought. That's generally a positive.
That said, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) isn’t quite as cheery. The histogram of Adobe’s 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) has gone negative, which can be seen as a short-term bearish signal.
Additionally, the 12-day EMA (the black line above) is wrestling with the 26-day EMA (the gold line) for MACD supremacy. If the black line wins, that's probably good for Adobe’s share price. But if the black line loses, that’s probably bad for the stock.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in ADBE at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.
Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
ADBE is set to report the firm's fiscal Q2 results on Thursday. What do the software giant’s charts and fundamentals say heading into the report?Let’s take a look:
Adobe’s Fundamental Analysis
ADBE was one of the original "Cloud Kings" back when the cloud was going to be Big Tech’s Next Great Thing. But as the shift in what's hot for tech firms moves from the cloud to generative AI, Adobe has been trying to evolve.
Wall Street is looking for ADBE to report $4.97 in adjusted earnings per share on $5.8 billion of revenue for fiscal Q2, which ran through May. Compared to the same period a year ago, results like that would amount to 10.9% of earnings growth on 9.2% of revenue gains.
Coming into the quarter, the firm had guided investors and analysts toward $4.95-$5.00 of adjusted EPS on $5.77 billion-$5.82 billion of revenue.
However, 19 of the 26 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover Adobe have cut their earnings estimates since the latest quarter began. (Seven revised their estimates higher.)
And beyond the headline earnings and revenues, some investors will also watch closely for Adobe’s so-called “remaining-performance obligation.” That refers to revenue that the company expects to recognize within the coming 12 months.
That number came in at $19.69 billion during Adobe’s fiscal Q1, of which the firm considered 67% as "current." Wall Street will be watching for whether that number rose or fell in fiscal Q2.
Adobe’s Technical Analysis
Now let’s look at Adobe’s charts, beginning with a 13-month one:
Readers will see that ADBE reacted sharply to a “double-top” pattern of bearish reversal that stretched from June through October 2024, as marked with two red boxes at the above chart’s left.
This pattern peaked in early September, and the stock bottomed out early in this past April.
Adobe has rallied back since then, but appears to have run into some resistance close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the early September through early April downtrend. That’s the gray horizontal line third from the bottom in the gray box at the chart’s right.
Now, let's declutter this chart a little and zoom in for a focused look at what's going more recently with the stock:
Looking at this time scale, readers will see that almost all of Adobe’s price action going back to the double-top pattern’s September apex fits very neatly within what we call an “Andrews' Pitchfork” model. (Denoted by the three purple diagonal lines at right.)
ADBE rebounded off of the pitchfork’s lower trendline in early April, then got a boost from what’s called a “mini golden cross” or “swing traders' golden cross” in May. That's when a stock’s 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line above) crosses above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA, denoted with a blue line).
However, the stock recently hit a rough patch as it tried to break out from the pitchfork’s upper trendline. That makes the upper line Adobe’s upside pivot for now -- currently at about $408, which ADBE was trading above as of Tuesday afternoon.
If Adobe can definitively find support at that level, the chart doesn’t indicate any significant resistance until the stock reaches its 200-day SMA (the red line above) at about $458.
Looking at our other indicators, Adobe’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) looks healthy, but not technically overbought. That's generally a positive.
That said, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) isn’t quite as cheery. The histogram of Adobe’s 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) has gone negative, which can be seen as a short-term bearish signal.
Additionally, the 12-day EMA (the black line above) is wrestling with the 26-day EMA (the gold line) for MACD supremacy. If the black line wins, that's probably good for Adobe’s share price. But if the black line loses, that’s probably bad for the stock.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in ADBE at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.
Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.