An Amateurs perspective, AEX
Updated
Hello Tradingview,
I'm an amateur when it comes to TA, I'm involved in Bitcoin and trying my best to learn as much as I can. I would not recommend trading on my analysis, I'd be suprised if anyone even considers it really.
Summary:
What you see here is the AEX weekly and may I say so myself, quite a bearish picture. But Don't forget I am an amateur if any seasoned traders could give their opinions and perhaps tips on my analysis if they think I missed something or am wrong about it then that'd be highly appreciated.
As I see it, it either breaks the .236 extension, which I drew from the bottom of the second wave down to the third wave up or breaks down and starts a mutli-year bear market. As you can see in 2000's we had a similar situation where we reached the .236 extension and made a nice rounded top and broke down starting a multi-year bear market. You can also see a clear Momentum divergence as it neared the end of the 5th wave, which is a requirement in Elliot Waves. Right now we are also doing just that! Wow! AEX is nearing the end of the 5th wave very obviously (if I may say so myself) with momentum divergence, that said it could still break trough the .236 extension and rally onto the .5. My personal approach in this situation would be selling of a decent chunk right here and see if it can still rally further and sell of the remainer there. My first analysis of the AEX and I predict a multi-year bear market to be followed, coming to your homes soon!
Furthermore you can also see an ABC correction on the chart before this bullrally which ended with a momentum divergence which is required for this irregular expanded flat. Another requirement was for wave C to be substiantially beyond the bottom of wave A, AEX is a perfect example. That was my analysis, my two satoshi's on the matter. Hope RTLZ doesn't start ridiculing me on TV. Though if they do, I urge you to sell immediatly.
Conclusion:
Break .236 extension = rally to 0.5 extension plausible (less it gets stopped out before that)
Rejection .236 extension = end of wave 5 and start of wave A in an ABC correction which is another word for the start of a multi-year bear market.
Hope you enjoyed this analysis. I might do an update and try and see if I can predict where the ABC correction might turn around if we get there.
I'm an amateur when it comes to TA, I'm involved in Bitcoin and trying my best to learn as much as I can. I would not recommend trading on my analysis, I'd be suprised if anyone even considers it really.
Summary:
What you see here is the AEX weekly and may I say so myself, quite a bearish picture. But Don't forget I am an amateur if any seasoned traders could give their opinions and perhaps tips on my analysis if they think I missed something or am wrong about it then that'd be highly appreciated.
As I see it, it either breaks the .236 extension, which I drew from the bottom of the second wave down to the third wave up or breaks down and starts a mutli-year bear market. As you can see in 2000's we had a similar situation where we reached the .236 extension and made a nice rounded top and broke down starting a multi-year bear market. You can also see a clear Momentum divergence as it neared the end of the 5th wave, which is a requirement in Elliot Waves. Right now we are also doing just that! Wow! AEX is nearing the end of the 5th wave very obviously (if I may say so myself) with momentum divergence, that said it could still break trough the .236 extension and rally onto the .5. My personal approach in this situation would be selling of a decent chunk right here and see if it can still rally further and sell of the remainer there. My first analysis of the AEX and I predict a multi-year bear market to be followed, coming to your homes soon!
Furthermore you can also see an ABC correction on the chart before this bullrally which ended with a momentum divergence which is required for this irregular expanded flat. Another requirement was for wave C to be substiantially beyond the bottom of wave A, AEX is a perfect example. That was my analysis, my two satoshi's on the matter. Hope RTLZ doesn't start ridiculing me on TV. Though if they do, I urge you to sell immediatly.
Conclusion:
Break .236 extension = rally to 0.5 extension plausible (less it gets stopped out before that)
Rejection .236 extension = end of wave 5 and start of wave A in an ABC correction which is another word for the start of a multi-year bear market.
Hope you enjoyed this analysis. I might do an update and try and see if I can predict where the ABC correction might turn around if we get there.
Note
I took a look again and have a small update in case of a possible break of .236.A rally to .382 would be possible, at this point the 5th wave is extended however if you'd then also break .382 a rally to 0.5 and a breakout there could be a signal for a new ath and you'd probably see some kind of ABCDE correction before that (zigzag wedge) I don't find it likely personally though.
I'd be suprised if we break .236, at that point any further move is an extension of the 5th wave and could break down violently when it stops.
Note
Save yo pension, save yo wife, market makers are coming to wipe your gains!!! OK?!
youtube.com/watch?v=Yr6j5d_gyF0&feature=youtu.be
Note
R.I.P. AEX. Will look to short it if I can get myself the means. Also watched RTLZ (Dutch investing channel) online video's explaining investing to I guess the average joe that is moving into a starters house, what a horrible shills and terrible advice.
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