7/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
ALGN
Beat, but i'm only dip buying
- 20x PE for growth, leadership position, 5% fwd fcf gen... great
- consumer names on mgn doing just fine as we over spend from the mar/apl pullback
- a higher cost discretionary purchase? hrm. tough to say.
- i think result is +ve and stock is higher. it's health-care-adjacent and not an insurance company or pharma (cough
NVO) at-risk industry
- any decent result but smaller either "beat" or w/e on the mgn that sends this back toward $180... has me dip buying (though that's not my expectation, just my reaction function - and unless there's a real stink bomb inside the print)
V
ALGNBeat, but i'm only dip buying
- 20x PE for growth, leadership position, 5% fwd fcf gen... great
- consumer names on mgn doing just fine as we over spend from the mar/apl pullback
- a higher cost discretionary purchase? hrm. tough to say.
- i think result is +ve and stock is higher. it's health-care-adjacent and not an insurance company or pharma (cough
NVO) at-risk industry- any decent result but smaller either "beat" or w/e on the mgn that sends this back toward $180... has me dip buying (though that's not my expectation, just my reaction function - and unless there's a real stink bomb inside the print)
V
Trade active
here we are... buying the dip... i need to do more work before tossing more fiat into this meltdownmassive over reaction...? idk, need to investigate, but -32% seems a bit too much without doing any work just buying price alone
anon?
V
Note
added a bit more on this last night when it was down about 35%... looking at a 5% profit and taking half off the table, why?1/ the result was just "not good". i do think stock might continue to recover further, but it's squarely in the dog house and it's hard enough to chase winners higher here in this tape (and typically being the larger caps, today that's
META, but mostly distilled into a singular name 
NVDA)2/ there seems to be a bifurcation of consumer names. long duration/ larger purchase types (like this) that require financing and are "nice to have but can be purchased later" and more discretionary but pseudo staple products like shoes, apparel, auto parts (even look at $cvna... a car is still "more useful" than say straight teeth, maybe). point is, look at whirlpool too, to make that point. these are purchases that just don't need to be pulled fwd. forget tariffs in all of that, it's noise
3/ the valuation is "good" not great. even with this sell off you're still looking at mid teens PE and with a more complicated EPS picture. the names i keep beating the drum on, and am squarely focused on getting right timing/ sizing are
DECK and $lulu. these also trade cheaper (even after ALGN's selloff) but have a much improved FCF generation picture and growth (and back to point 2... seem to be more "staple"-type products.)... add to this the DECK result was good and the stock is out of the conundrum bat cave.so yeah, i'll probably clear out of this at the open for a meager MSD gain. i don't need the headache, not close to it. glad i sat it out. dip was way bigger than i think should be the case (hence the buy/ reaction function we set up for). but it's not a "need to have" in the portfolio at this stage in the tape/ risk.
be well my friends
V
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.