Follow up on AMC
Updated
Last week, I posted about AMC's technicals and how they point much lower. This update is meant to augment the original post by showing the sub-wave structure within the larger Elliott Wave structure that I posted last week.
The larger Elliott Wave structure (the highest degree of trend) started downward at the all-time-high (June 2, 2021). This larger Elliott-Wave structure shows an impulsive 5-wave move downward. This conclusion is confirmed by the downtrend revealed strongly by price (lower highs, lower lows), moving averages sloped downward and stacked bearishly, and other indicators of momentum mentioned in my previous post.
The sub-wave structure illustrated in this update is important because it confirms that AMC's price is still experiencing impulse waves to the downside. The sub-waves shown begin with the November 8, 2021 high. (On the larger trend of one higher degree—see my linked post from last week—the November 8, 2021 high to the December 14, 2021 low constitutes Wave 3, and Wave 3 typically is the longest impulse / motive wave.)
The sub-waves also show that the bounce starting Dec. 14, 2021, was the ultimate headfake: because this bounce is a classic 3-wave pattern, it is corrective relative to the primary trend, i.e., it is a retracement within the impulse waves downward.
The sub-wave structure also reveals that the 5-wave move down starting December 21, 2021 is not yet complete. In fact, it appears that wave 3 is underway, leaving significant downside to come—especially considering that wave 3 is typically the longest of the 5-wave structure. Hope this helps.
The larger Elliott Wave structure (the highest degree of trend) started downward at the all-time-high (June 2, 2021). This larger Elliott-Wave structure shows an impulsive 5-wave move downward. This conclusion is confirmed by the downtrend revealed strongly by price (lower highs, lower lows), moving averages sloped downward and stacked bearishly, and other indicators of momentum mentioned in my previous post.
The sub-wave structure illustrated in this update is important because it confirms that AMC's price is still experiencing impulse waves to the downside. The sub-waves shown begin with the November 8, 2021 high. (On the larger trend of one higher degree—see my linked post from last week—the November 8, 2021 high to the December 14, 2021 low constitutes Wave 3, and Wave 3 typically is the longest impulse / motive wave.)
The sub-waves also show that the bounce starting Dec. 14, 2021, was the ultimate headfake: because this bounce is a classic 3-wave pattern, it is corrective relative to the primary trend, i.e., it is a retracement within the impulse waves downward.
The sub-wave structure also reveals that the 5-wave move down starting December 21, 2021 is not yet complete. In fact, it appears that wave 3 is underway, leaving significant downside to come—especially considering that wave 3 is typically the longest of the 5-wave structure. Hope this helps.
Note
Substantial progress today is being made in the direction of the forecasted target.Note
After a bounce in the first half of today's session, AMC (like much of the US stock market) has now turned back lower. The bounce in today's session rose approximately 4-5%. And it looks to be a corrective sub-wave within the larger context of an 5-wave impulsive move downward. I suspect that tomorrow and next week may complete the 5-wave move down. I'm optimistic that my $7 - $14 target will be achieved sooner than later after today's bounce failed at the lows from a few days ago.Note
Since my original post, AMC has fallen 18% to mid 16s. If I had traded this, I would certainly take some profits today esp. with option strategies. A lot can happen over a weekend, and being greedy has burned me many times!Trade closed: target reached
With a low today of 14.23, I would consider the target reached. This is an excellent target for a swing trade starting at 20.40 when I first published this. This is 30% move in several trading days, and anyone trading this to the downside did quite well. :) While I think more downside is imminent in the coming weeks and months, downside is rarely in a straight line, and a bounce is likely at this point that retraces a portion of the latest downward move.
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