AMC Earnings Build-up
Updated
Quick disclaimer, I've posted many Ideas for this stock expecting an uptrend and they haven't panned out, but I'm going to pull out my inner Michael Burry and claim that I don't think I'm wrong, I'm just early.
AMC is currently being pinched in two downtrends that date back to Aug 24th and 25th.
The closer resistance would require the stock to break/stay above 4 dollars (as of tomorrow, Feb 8th). That number goes down every day after that.
The support on this downtrend would have AMC needing to stay above 3$ at the time of earnings on Feb 28th
But TA has let us down before, so let's talk about earnings:
Analysts' expected revenue is 1.046B.
AMC has met or beaten revenue expectations every single quarter since the initial COVID quarter, which hints to the possible re-occurrence for Q4 2023.
Maybe analysts don't exactly know how to calculate/predict AMC's revenue.
Even less now that AMC released their own movies (T. Swift + Beyonce). Nobody knows exactly how much they made from those.
On top of that, there's all the new merch they've been coming out with, popcorn at new stores, their own candy line (which according to Twitter and Reddit, Apes went out and bought like mad for the holidays) AND the AMC VISA Credit Card, of which it is pretty much impossible to predict the revenue from (and I'm optimistic considering VISA destroyed their last earnings)...
I strongly expect an Earnings Beat.
In terms of future outlook, which is also very important in determining the direction of a stock price post-earnings, Q1 will be the absolute weakest of the year for sure. But that doesn't mean it'll be terrible, or even bad. It's kind of too bad Dune 2 isn't released until after earnings. Having just one weekend before the call would give us a greater idea of how the quarter will finish but, if anything, a successful first weekend for Dune 2 immediately after a positive earnings call will just keep the momentum going. The rest of the year has many more blockbusters to come.
This will be my last Idea for AMC, I'll just keep expanding on it from here.
I'm so bullish that I am absolutely sure that we are hovering around the bottom. Once we start going up, there's no looking back.
AMC is currently being pinched in two downtrends that date back to Aug 24th and 25th.
The closer resistance would require the stock to break/stay above 4 dollars (as of tomorrow, Feb 8th). That number goes down every day after that.
The support on this downtrend would have AMC needing to stay above 3$ at the time of earnings on Feb 28th
But TA has let us down before, so let's talk about earnings:
Analysts' expected revenue is 1.046B.
AMC has met or beaten revenue expectations every single quarter since the initial COVID quarter, which hints to the possible re-occurrence for Q4 2023.
Maybe analysts don't exactly know how to calculate/predict AMC's revenue.
Even less now that AMC released their own movies (T. Swift + Beyonce). Nobody knows exactly how much they made from those.
On top of that, there's all the new merch they've been coming out with, popcorn at new stores, their own candy line (which according to Twitter and Reddit, Apes went out and bought like mad for the holidays) AND the AMC VISA Credit Card, of which it is pretty much impossible to predict the revenue from (and I'm optimistic considering VISA destroyed their last earnings)...
I strongly expect an Earnings Beat.
In terms of future outlook, which is also very important in determining the direction of a stock price post-earnings, Q1 will be the absolute weakest of the year for sure. But that doesn't mean it'll be terrible, or even bad. It's kind of too bad Dune 2 isn't released until after earnings. Having just one weekend before the call would give us a greater idea of how the quarter will finish but, if anything, a successful first weekend for Dune 2 immediately after a positive earnings call will just keep the momentum going. The rest of the year has many more blockbusters to come.
This will be my last Idea for AMC, I'll just keep expanding on it from here.
I'm so bullish that I am absolutely sure that we are hovering around the bottom. Once we start going up, there's no looking back.
Note
Greenest week since Oct 2023.Broke above the lower resistance and about to test the upper resistance around 4.70.
I do not expect a retest of that lower resistance (now support). If you take a look at the 4h ETH chart, we already re-tested it with that funky looking candle in pre-market on Friday.
Based on the options chain, if we can end the week above 5$... Let's just say it'll be an expensive week for bears/shorts.
My tatas are jacked. I feel it in my bones.
Monday can't come soon enough
Note
Breakout, retest AND close above the macro resistance after yesterday's CPI shakeout/fakeout.Max Pain is currently 4.50. With the crazy amount of 5$ calls, I wouldn't be surprised to see AMC end the week just below that.
A close above 5$ would be extremely positive, but let's not count our eggs before they hatch.
I'll be back with an update on Friday after close, or sooner if we get some kind of announcement from AA.
Note
Couldn't hold above 5$, which, as I mentioned in my previous update, I'm not too surprised about. Still very happy with this +10% week, +35% since hitting ATL. We have crossed over the macro resistance and now have clear skies above.
The only real TA I can provide, and thanks to LT1 for the spot, is that there are gaps at ($9.50-$10), ($11.73-$12.73), ($16.60-$19.40) & ($36.97-$43.33). Gaps don't always get filled, but they do almost 80% of the time. It's also impossible to say when they will get filled, but these are price targets to keep an eye on.
Adam Aron tweeted out that he is holding his tongue on what's going on with everything until earnings day. I think there'll be a lot of speculation on AMC until then, both positive and negative. That won't change my view though, I'm still bullish.
See you on Tuesday.
Note
Pulled back on lowest weekly volume since August of last year (albeit, it was a 4-day week).Three more trading days until earnings.
Note
Alright! Less than 24h until earnings. Quick second-hand pump in after hours thanks to IMAX beating expectations - this a great sign that AMC could as well.
(From Variety.com) "[...] Imax was saddled with the underperforming “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom,” the final installment in the floundering and now-defunct DC Extended Universe. It had much better luck with “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” and “Wonka,” both of which scored at the box office earlier in the fall and winter, helping to lift Imax revenues."
Success from the Taylor Swift movie for IMAX means huge success for AMC, as they are the distributor.
IMAX also mentioned major optimism for Dune 2.
Although IMAX and AMC aren't the same company, being in the same industry helps predict sentiment to a certain extent.
(Still from Variety.com) "In its earnings report, Imax also disclosed full-year figures, which saw revenue increase 25% to $375 million, as adjusted earnings per share hit 94 cents — up from 6 cents in 2022. The company’s net income of $25 million also improved dramatically from a loss of $23 million in 2022."
What will AMC report?
IMAX is up 10.3% in after-hours at the time of me writing this, and AMC +5% as a sympathy.
Note
So. I've let the dust settle after earnings and guess what, we ended around Max Pain once again. We are down about 13% since the close before earnings (68 cents).
I think most of us were expecting this (earnings) to be the catalyst for THE squeeze/MOASS, but the volume was actually relatively low.
Earnings was great despite the writer's strike and the low amount of movies that followed in Q4. So yeah, we did beat expectations, but the only traction Shorts have is that we were still negative for the quarter and the year. This is their excuse for keeping us down.
The grand picture is that AMC is improving every single quarter and even without the audience or the amount of movies, they are making more money per patron & per movie than ever before. Dune 2 is about to blow short's socks and heads off, but we won't be told that until Q1 earnings in May.
I truly hope any AMC investor can afford to hold (and hopefully increase) their shares for the long-term because it is looking better and better.
We need a catalyst that brings in a crazy amount of volume from institutions and retails investors to blow this thing to the moon. Whether that is in March or April after the bank lending program ends and the Reverse Repo runs dry, or in May when AMC gets a 3rd profitable quarter out of the last 4, we can't know for sure.
What we all hopefully can tell by now, is that AMC is making more and more money, the hurdles are decreasing and the debt is being paid off. If you can afford to invest in this company, set alerts and otherwise just forget about it - you WILL win.
Those who look at the stock every single minute of every day will feel more stressed and are more likely to lose out. Patience is key here - if you've got it, you're going to win.
AMC will be consistently profitable very soon and I hope you will all be there to reap the rewards.
Hang in there Apes, and godspeed.
Note
Also, for the OG AMC holders who know... we had to break to break through 5$ before we sneezed back in Jan '21. You can check out the chart on my "AMC Major Upwards Movement Soon" idea to see the numbers pre APE & R/S.Breaking 5$ could be a catalyst itself... Let's see
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