AMC Amateur Analysis
Updated
AMCI got in at $5.70 2/12 thinking we were about to break $6.00 and stay there, jumped the gun. That huge gap from $10.16 to $11.08 is driving me crazy. Despite being in though I'm completely neutral about where this is going, we can go either way at this point.
The 8 and 13 EMAs have been playing whack a mole with price since 2/1, but those faster moving EMAs above us are flattening out which means selling on the lower timeframes is becoming less aggressive.
2/9 when we bounced off of the 200 EMA and were supported, 2/10 we got an "okay" amount of volume but couldn't break all that resistance at $6.50. It was probably an attempt to use the wedge we were in as fuel to get us back up but it didn't work out. Another Attempt was made 2/12 with a second smaller wedge that had formed but we couldn't even make it over $6.00. At least we didn't end up falling through the floor at the 200 EMA which was a possibility, I will gladly take the sideways movement. Being below the 100 EMA as we are is not good but the 200 EMA we're sitting above is a powerful friend to have on our side with the 400 EMA not far behind.
I've got 3 ideas here:
1: If I draw a fib (from $5.95 to $5.46) we get fib level 2.618 at $6.76. Ideally we climb up to that level early next week and hit the 55 EMA. We probably fall back down a little to $6.55. If we can stay above that then we probably stay there since the recent volume of the 2/10 candle says those are good levels. The volume on those candles are what created the bottom of our current range, it makes sense that that's the range top and could turn into a good support once we break it. It'd have to be a decent sized move on good volume, but its definitely possible.
Aside from the 150 million in volume 2/10, volume has been steadily declining by about 100 million or so a day since 1/28. The past two days its been at 40-50 million, almost pre reddit levels. It could be a sign that price is about to explode. 2/10 volume was mostly buying. There was almost no volume the 2/11, and there was some selling volume 2/12 but it was also almost nothing. The past two weeks while price has been falling, volume has also been falling. Now price is leveling off, and sell volume is very low which means that sellers are exhausted and we may see a reversal soon. On the move up if it is to happen we need to see good volume. 2/10 makes me think that the next few times we do get that it will be positive and we should climb.
We have a ton of fast EMAs and one slow EMA to break through, then we need to settle above $6.50 at the least before this looks okay again and those shorter term EMAs start carrying us up dragging the slower moving EMAs 200 and 400 up behind them.
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2: It looked like we could be trying to make higher highs and higher lows after this medium term downtrend we've been in the past 2 weeks, but now as of 2/12 it looks like a range. So we range here between $5.30 and $6.00 - $6.50. There have been 3 hits at 5.46, so that seems like good support, but how many more times can we hit that until it fails? At the same time the $5.90 - $6.00 area has been hit a few times too, can't keep us down forever. Anything is possible. At this point it looks like it'd be easier for this to go down than up. Especially with all these EMAs forcing price down. Just have to wait and see which side of the range price squeezes out of.
Looking at the 2 HR chart we have to get above $6.00 and not fall below $5.15. Reaching and staying above $6.00 will be enough that we can work our way up from there on the lower timeframes, eventually having an effect on the larger ones, but it could take a while. How long I have no idea. But three days in a row the daily lows have gotten higher and its long term EMAs are coming up a little which long term is a good thing for an investor who has weeks or months to wait, as long as those supports hold. I do think if this range keeps on it eventually goes up, but I'm hoping we break out sooner than later. Assuming we just range slowly working our way up and this doesn't go parabolic again anytime soon there are much better things to be in right now.
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3. On the daily chart we are alright, as long as we're above $4.60 to $5.10 we are ranging and we can work our way up. Long term, despite how we got here, we are technically in an uptrend. Since this is a daily it chart it could be a while before its EMAs carry us up. If price goes below $4.50 - 4.60 though this is pretty much dead, even on the 3 day chart it would be below all major EMAs at that point which is not a good look. If this falls below $5.30 and there is no sign of recovery, I would just consider it a loss at that point. Lack of recovery for me would be bouncing from $4.90 or so and being rejected by $5.35. Like I said it can still go up from that point but I'm not sticking around.
Short and Mid Term price targets:
Up: 6.50, 7.50, 8.70, 10.10, 11.08
Down: 5.35, 4.90, 4.20, 3.80
Note
- Idea 1 failed.- Idea 2 still in play.
- Idea 3 still in play.
On the 2hr chart you can see what's going on pretty well. As bad as today looked, we are just ranging. The 55 EMA is at $6.30 where we were rejected 2/16 and the 100 EMA is at $6.55 which is where we need to get to and above. We have the 100 EMA acting as resistance the past few days sitting almost exactly at $6.00. And directly below are the 400 and 800 EMAs, which are the 200 and 400 EMAs of the 4HR chart.
On the 4HR chart we are sitting right on the 200 EMA and are being supported for now. Price hit the downward target at the bottom of the range $5.35. Something I didn't notice before, there is a possible support at $5.27 so it could have gone there. Anything between there and about $6.60 is consolidation. Which is constructive. There is still downward pressure, If $5.25 - $5.35 breaks it goes straight to the 4 HR 400 EMA at $4.90. That being said AMC is starting to get bought back up very slowly. People just don't seem to want to sell. But people also don't seem to want to buy. As you can see in the volume weighted MACD below this downward move had no real sell pressure at all. You can see the whole move a bit better on the 2HR chart, but its all yellow. On the squeeze momentum indicator you can see this move didn't have any force behind it at all. This was a test of the bottom of the range, to see if people would sell. That's it.
Again, if this breaks and people do fold at $5.27 then 400 EMA at $4.90 will be tested to see if people will hold there, and the productive range we are in gets destroyed. As long as we are here we do still possibly work our way up.
Note
Small correction: On the 2HR chart the 200 EMA is what has been resistance the past few days and is now sitting at about $6.00. Not the 100 EMA.
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