AMD double-top indicates a fall back to 50 by January
Updated
AMD has been trading in a descending channel for the past year. A double-top has just formed near the upper resistance line. This would indicate that the price will go lower shortly. It's possible a triple-top could form before this happens. It's also possible that a cup and handle have formed and the price will break out from the channel. But based on the past pattern cadence and the angle of previous price drops, I expect AMD to hit 50 sometime near the end of December or the beginning of January. I'll be watching closely over the next couple of trading days to confirm.
Note
The triple top has formed albeit on an upward trend. That may not mean anything since some past tops were also on upward trends -- until they weren't. I still think this pattern is a strong bearish signal and AMD will head lower.Note
AMD has now reached the support level of 73.67 set back on July 1st. Once the price breaches this level, it should be free to drop to the next support level of 59.92 in the next several days.Note
There was a major price move downwards today (December 6) of −3.35 −4.55%. A short covering rally may be in store in the next day or two, but we're definitely in the territory of potentially more drastic price drops.Note
After a couple of sideways days, AMD has moved lower by -1.88. I'm hoping to see it continue lower throughout December, however I heard an opposing opinion today that it may break out of the channel towards the up side. Their reasoning was that the area of the triple top was a 2 year old support level, and that Oct - Nov may have been a bear trap. I'm not so sure, but it's something to consider.Note
Speaking of bear traps, it looks like we just had a smaller one form as we had a short covering rally over the last couple of days. Today we are back on track as AMD dropped -3.8% about 50 cents shy of the support level from December 9. Will it bounce off that support or continue down?Note
With the short covering rally clearly over, we broke through the Dec 9 support level of 68.59 for another significant price drop today (−2.40 −3.48%). We're on track to reach my target in a couple of weeks, maybe longer factoring in the holidays. As always, the market is always right, so I'll be watching closely.Note
It's been over a week since my last update. Since then we have had another bear trap/short-covering rally. These are great opportunities if you can determine when the rally is over and then take a short position with little risk.Note
Yet another short covering rally is nearing an end, and there may be a short opportunity tomorrow as AMD heads steadily towards a consolidation area (see Oct-Nov). The angle of the back side of the triple top is not as steep as in previous bear runs. I'm considering the possibility that AMD might make a bottom sometime before it reaches 56. Until that happens, I'm still hoping that it will reach 50 in January.Trade closed manually
It looks like we only got to 60.05, and with the week long rally we just had, we won't be revisiting that level for a while, and not likely to reach 50 this month.I'm calling this closed, and I hope you enjoyed following along.
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