Updated

AMD Ascending Triangle Break Out / Head & Shoulders Pattern TOP

AMD Update:

1. We have broke out of the ascending triangle with a height of $2.25 from $43.35;

2. The ascending triangle profit target (Wedbush Upgrade as Well), is $2.25 from $43.35 by definition (The Maximum Triangle Height from the Resistance at $41.11 to $43.35);

3. The ascending triangle is a continuation pattern in this case;

4. The volume is average today; but it is December 20th, and institutions are not buying today;

5. We usually like to see strong volume on this breakout;

6. The price target may be a reversal point for many traders;

7. The price target of the ascending triangle is $45.75;

8. The price target of the head of the Head and Shoulders AMD pattern from major analysis is now $45.75 as well;

9. A short position, or puts many be well advised if and when we start to approach and or cross $45 and head to $46;

0. $46 was major resistance in the 2001 Bubble for AMD. At least 6 tests of $46;

1. This may be it folks, for AMD and the market for a while.

2. Puts are cheap.

3. I am very long on AMD.

4. Happy Holidays.

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Ask yourself this?

1. What kind of earnings and revenue beat, as well as raised guidance, could possibly support this stock at $46+ on January 28th?

2. What was the defining catalyst of the Stock Market Crash of 2001?

3. It was INTC (Intel)

4. INTC issued a profit warning in March 2001, and the NAS opened LIMIT DOWN. Like 500 points.

5. The market crashed.

6. INTC reports earnings on January 23.

7. AMD reports earnings on January 28th.

8. INTC is currently in big trouble, at least in the short term.

9. INTC is a 250 Billion Dollar company, and AMD was almost bankrupt a few years back when Lisa Su stepped in.

0. AMD is now a 50 billion dollar company, up from $25 Billion just a few months ago... numbers not exact but you get it.

1. AMD is suddenly going to be a $60 stock and worth 1/3 of INTC in only a few short months?

2. AMD and 7nm with the TSM relationship is going to destroy NVDA and INTC for good?

3. Plan accordingly....

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I really and truly believe that AMD will be a $1000 within 10 years, but we are way ahead of ourselves right now, and you all know it.

Delusional at Mr. BobbySpa would say... or Irrational Exhuberance...

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If we end up with a false breakout here, or if we reach our price target of $45.75 or we go to $48 or even $50, we will come back down.

The first price target would be $42.50, then $41.75, then we see what happens next...

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$41.75 if it held, could easily be the spot to rocket this stock back up to $50, in a final wave of buying and a blow off top...

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Oh, and one other little note, a single downgrade of this stock in January from just about any idiot would lead to a 10 percent immediate selloff. IMHO.

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Which is what we need and would take us back to $41.75.

We also need a bunch of tests on the $40 support level please.

This would really form a strong base for us, and maybe help us keep $40, through a crash, or a market correction. I don't think crash, but AMD could easily be snapped up left, right and centre, by people with $40 or $39 price entry targets.

One thing is for sure, the market won't stay at these levels long...

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Psychologically 50 will be a hard stop for 2020. 2021 will be the year of AMD.

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And 2022, 2023, 2024... I already have AMD stock in my will to my daughter, and I plan on living at least another 25 years :)

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Oh and I have not advocated selling a single share of AMD, not since the $27.75 run. The last time I made so much money in such a short period of time, was the final run up in the early 2001 and shorting the market after the INTC profit warning...

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Oh wait, I loaded the boat on puts on the QQQ in August 2019. Didn't cover until December 27th. Right on the day. You may roll your eyes, but that is fair enough. I might too...

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August 2018 sorry

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If you want to buy puts, use the April 2020 strike on AMD at least. Avoid anything close to earnings January 28 (before is okay, but maybe too soon for the decline - averages can stay extremely overbought for long periods and I don't have a crystal ball), Also remember the next earnings date will be after the April strike, probably last week April, early May whatever. So avoid early May strikes as well. Earnings are important for IV crush. You want to sell calls into earnings on ascending prices... and own cheap puts should your stock crash.

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And what ever Pete Nigerian and his dumbo brother say on CNBC, don't do. Those guys are revealing their options strategy way after they are in, and most times they are exiting as they are talking on CNBC. Why would they allow you to join or front run their strategies? Are they morons? .... Good question. They are rich morons. Watched them drop 20K on NFLX calls into that $380 to $250 drop. I did too, as that moron Josh on CNBC was pumping NFLX at $385 for the breakout. At least I sold calls, and bought the $360 put, those dumbos dropped the whole shebang on Calls only. Wow.

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And I watch options, and half the time when they have "unusual activity" I can't find it anywhere, the play was already made and sold...

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Okay Pete, somebody just bought 100K options on the AMD January 17 strike, but the open interest is only 5K, How the F*ck does that work Pete Nigerian?

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Final comment on this thread, these ideas are ideas only. Trade at your own risk. Anybody who tells you they "know" what is going to happen and when is lying. The future is not set. Also, please consider the longer term thesis on this stock and the fundamentals before you do anything. I don't believe this is a long term short play in any way. But just as markets can melt up, they can melt down. The problem is that everybody is trying to beat everyone else to the punch with AI / NNs / Rules and Sentiment Engines and Big Data. Always plan a little ahead on the charts, and everybody is trying to outsmart and out think each other. Exit points don't usually get reached and entry point are rarely achieved. AI has caused this. You need to let time work for you on the markets, time is your friend. Even the algos cant time the markets day by day.

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Pick your stocks, pick your entry points and exit points, let stocks come to you, stay mindful and ready to exit a losing trade. No trade, is a trade in itself. No action is an action. Cash is a position. Don't chase. Be patient. Rome was built in a day, but it certainly melted down quite quickly...

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"Rome wasn't built in a day, but melted down quite quickly" - Me

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UPDATE:

See new idea. We believe this convergence is the final breakout point for AMD. The final run to $51.50.

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That is the great thing about trading, kinda like running errands, head out to the grocery store one day on a quick trip, and end up buying a new home.... trading strategies and ideas must be fluid with the market, flows and quantitative analysis.... brave new world people.

Trade active

Well looks like the run to $45.75 is on target...

drchelsea1

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drchelsea1