AMD / WEDBUSH $51.50 TARGET / WHY? / RUN TO $51.50 POSSIBLE
So crunching numbers all weekend and we get this:
1. Current Channel for Market and AMD, same as 2006 pattern;
2. Current Channel not a "blow off top" in terms of the same parabola of 2001; We will retrace just the same.
3. The Current Channel takes AMD right to $51.50, and then the bottom of that Channel is $40;
4. Looking at the options layout it supports this (have exact stats just from memory);
Strong Open Interest (CALLS / PUTS - AMD)
- Jan 17 2020 25, 30, 35, 40, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 50, 55, 60, 65 (YES 65) CALL
- Jan 17 2020 42, 41, 40, 39, 38, 36, 35, 34, 30 PUT
- Feb 21 2020 40, 44 CALL
- Feb 21 2020 35 PUT
- April 17 2020 35 30 PUT
- May 14 2020 45, 50, 60 CALL
- May 14 2020 32 PUT
- June 19 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 CALL
... More to come here
5. So it appears that the top of this run may be $51.50, and it looks like from the Options Schedule that it is going to
be before January 17 2020. I am going to crunch some numbers on longer dates and see if the "smart money" is betting on a top later than
end of January 2020.
6. It appears that we then retrace after the end of January (Shorts will be dead by then, and will throw in the towel, this is the top)
7. The bottom of the Channel is $40 for AMD. When we break that, it is over for this rally. Not before.
8. We are initiating the following at Market Open on Monday:
PURCHASE OF 50 / 55/ 60 / 65 January 17 2020 Calls. We also believe that the May and June dated calls for 50 and 60 calls are based on the lower Theta, and then you can still get the upside on the run to $51.50 with the Delta on any of those May of June calls.
PURCHASE OF MAY 50 AND 60 CALL.
PURCHASE OF JUNE 50 CALL.
WE ARE PURCHASING ALL OUT OF THE MONEY STRIKES AND UNLOADING AT $51.50 SHOULD WE MAKE IT.
We are still keeping our Delta Neutral position until the first week in January on our massive position. We are going to use profit to fund all these purchases. The decision has been made above my head.
Have a good Sunday.
1. Current Channel for Market and AMD, same as 2006 pattern;
2. Current Channel not a "blow off top" in terms of the same parabola of 2001; We will retrace just the same.
3. The Current Channel takes AMD right to $51.50, and then the bottom of that Channel is $40;
4. Looking at the options layout it supports this (have exact stats just from memory);
Strong Open Interest (CALLS / PUTS - AMD)
- Jan 17 2020 25, 30, 35, 40, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 50, 55, 60, 65 (YES 65) CALL
- Jan 17 2020 42, 41, 40, 39, 38, 36, 35, 34, 30 PUT
- Feb 21 2020 40, 44 CALL
- Feb 21 2020 35 PUT
- April 17 2020 35 30 PUT
- May 14 2020 45, 50, 60 CALL
- May 14 2020 32 PUT
- June 19 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 CALL
... More to come here
5. So it appears that the top of this run may be $51.50, and it looks like from the Options Schedule that it is going to
be before January 17 2020. I am going to crunch some numbers on longer dates and see if the "smart money" is betting on a top later than
end of January 2020.
6. It appears that we then retrace after the end of January (Shorts will be dead by then, and will throw in the towel, this is the top)
7. The bottom of the Channel is $40 for AMD. When we break that, it is over for this rally. Not before.
8. We are initiating the following at Market Open on Monday:
PURCHASE OF 50 / 55/ 60 / 65 January 17 2020 Calls. We also believe that the May and June dated calls for 50 and 60 calls are based on the lower Theta, and then you can still get the upside on the run to $51.50 with the Delta on any of those May of June calls.
PURCHASE OF MAY 50 AND 60 CALL.
PURCHASE OF JUNE 50 CALL.
WE ARE PURCHASING ALL OUT OF THE MONEY STRIKES AND UNLOADING AT $51.50 SHOULD WE MAKE IT.
We are still keeping our Delta Neutral position until the first week in January on our massive position. We are going to use profit to fund all these purchases. The decision has been made above my head.
Have a good Sunday.
Note
1. And the breakout point for this final leg to $51.50 will be the $46 resistance and launching point.2. We break $46, then we flag to $51.50 and that is the end of the game.
3. When is anybody's guess, we will be watching the options in real time with algorithms I am writing right now to watch everything that everybody does on AMD calls and puts of any substantive nature from now until January 31st.
4. We will be watching for any signs of a reversal and that run back to $40.
Note
We will be unloading 50% of our AMD positions starting at $50. We will be unloading more and more until $51.50.Like the saying goes on the original movie wall street, "When it hits $51.50, Sell it all."
Have a good one.
Note
Nobody is listening to anything I have to say btw. Top of the food chain is calling for the $60 run, I say whatever... just give me my paycheck on time....Note
Oh, we are also looking for the reversal and consolidation around the $46 level, and maybe some retrenchment, but we don't care. We are also expecting major resistance at the $50 level, with many tests, but we don't care.
We know that the $51.50 price target may be exceeded and we run to $60, but we don't care.
We are professionals, we have price targets, we have been in AMD since 10+, and with most of our holdings from $28 to $32, so if we sell it all at $51.50 and it goes to $60, we don't care.
Are I always speak about to any trader or investor, have price targets, entry and exit points, and stick to them. Irrational Exuberance will carry us far over $51.50 (Maybe), but we don't care.
Note
Now if my paycheck and bonuses are not posted to my account on the 15th and 30th of each month, I CARE.Note
If this thesis is correct, we head up to $46, after we pass $46 and either 10 tests or none it won't be in between I don't think, I wouldn't be surprised if we just shot right through, the final run of this bull market and the top will have almost no resistance whatsoever at all. Anywhere. It will be something to see my friends.Note
1. Trump on the Republican Impeachment Leash2. Fed Put
3. Trump re-election based on Market
4. Xi wants to sign now now now, in case Trump wins term 2 and goes to war
5. The Semi earnings in January will be all about "bottom of cycle" nonsense
6. We go much higher
7. Longs are terrified of a top, shorts are on life support, volume is low.
8. Shorts will give up, go longs, and longs won't be scared anymore.
9. VIX will go to all time low
0. We go to $60
1. We come back to $40
2. If we don't hold, we go back to $28.
Note
If you are going to buy AMD at these levels and hope for the $60 run, you need to me smart. Possibly not an easy path and lots of head fakes and false reversals along the way. Not for the squeamish. You should think about some shares, and then don't look at them. Set a price target and let them get sold on there own. Buy now, and set $46, $48, $50, $52, $55, whatever price target and let it ride. If it goes you make great money. If it doesn't AMD at $44, will probably be right back there 12 months from now, if not higher.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.