Advanced Micro Devices IncUpdated AMD - Ascending Symmetrical Triangle Resolution - GO TIME
AMD is currently showing multiple signs of reversal (see other posts), and at the least, is following clear chart patterns in recent days with 100% correlation/position resolution:
1. Bearish Ascending Flag (Before $47+ top), with Divergence from Stochastic
2. Formation of a clear Head and Shoulders Pattern at the same time, with break of the $46 neckline and close below;
3. Formation of an Ascending Triangle (Bearish), after the long AMD run (Confirming Bearing), and then the break below the Head and Shoulders Pattern, as the same converging points (Probability Now Close to 100% reversal);
4. Formation of what appears to be a Spring Formation Pattern off a Supply Level;
5. A Failed Re-test of $46.60 (Head and Shoulders as well and break from Ascending Bearish Triangle (Triple Convergence);
6. And now what appears to be a daily formation of an Ascending Symmetrical Triangle.
So:
The resolution of a symmetric triangle is much less predictable however it is usually considered a "consolidation pattern" which means to me that it will break in the direction of the trend that was in effect before the pattern appeared.
Now I would normally say that so many people missed this run, especially the 300% AMD run, that the resolution of this triangle would be an explosive move to the UPSIDE. But, I would place the probability higher that it would break to the downside as the buyers BEGGING to get back in are well aware of the risks of a possible quick and dirty January 2 selloff.
Therefore if there are no other factors to consider, I would suspect that unless institutions are trying to create another leg from nothing, we should go down tomorrow and hit $45 again.
If this breaks out like mad tomorrow to the upside, well then we have a serious issue here. It is either retail stupidity, or institutional manipulation, and both of those would be bad. The market is not following any rules anymore, and models will become less correlated.
If we tear tomorrow, and continue on January second to the upside, I would suggest the following:
Buy April or May 55 Calls or 60 Calls on AMD, and wait for your payday.
If on the other hand, we break down tomorrow hard, it is DEAD OVER on January 2nd. If the VIX closes over $16 tomorrow, January 2nd may be the start of October 2018.
I CANT WAIT. I LIVE FOR THIS.
1. Bearish Ascending Flag (Before $47+ top), with Divergence from Stochastic
2. Formation of a clear Head and Shoulders Pattern at the same time, with break of the $46 neckline and close below;
3. Formation of an Ascending Triangle (Bearish), after the long AMD run (Confirming Bearing), and then the break below the Head and Shoulders Pattern, as the same converging points (Probability Now Close to 100% reversal);
4. Formation of what appears to be a Spring Formation Pattern off a Supply Level;
5. A Failed Re-test of $46.60 (Head and Shoulders as well and break from Ascending Bearish Triangle (Triple Convergence);
6. And now what appears to be a daily formation of an Ascending Symmetrical Triangle.
So:
The resolution of a symmetric triangle is much less predictable however it is usually considered a "consolidation pattern" which means to me that it will break in the direction of the trend that was in effect before the pattern appeared.
Now I would normally say that so many people missed this run, especially the 300% AMD run, that the resolution of this triangle would be an explosive move to the UPSIDE. But, I would place the probability higher that it would break to the downside as the buyers BEGGING to get back in are well aware of the risks of a possible quick and dirty January 2 selloff.
Therefore if there are no other factors to consider, I would suspect that unless institutions are trying to create another leg from nothing, we should go down tomorrow and hit $45 again.
If this breaks out like mad tomorrow to the upside, well then we have a serious issue here. It is either retail stupidity, or institutional manipulation, and both of those would be bad. The market is not following any rules anymore, and models will become less correlated.
If we tear tomorrow, and continue on January second to the upside, I would suggest the following:
Buy April or May 55 Calls or 60 Calls on AMD, and wait for your payday.
If on the other hand, we break down tomorrow hard, it is DEAD OVER on January 2nd. If the VIX closes over $16 tomorrow, January 2nd may be the start of October 2018.
I CANT WAIT. I LIVE FOR THIS.
Note
And the $45.50 Price Level corresponds to the bottom line of the Double Top Pattern... Break UP or DOWN. Tomorrow.Trade active
AMD price target raised to $65 from $52 at Rosenblatt Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann noted that AMD shares are up nearly 147% year-to-date but he views 2020 as a year in which the company will continue its early momentum in CPU share gains and he sees "limited competitive threats slowing the momentum" for the upcoming new 7nm mobile Ryzen chip. Given that he sees a strong back half of 2020 coming on the early ramp of new game consoles from both Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE), Mosesmann believes AMD is poised for multiple expansion, leading him to raise his price target on the shares to $65 from $52. He maintains a Buy rating on AMD.Note
So this upgrade today from $65 is important. If we still go down, you know what you need to know...Trade active
Stock tried to do a POP, and got sold right away. Going down, even with the Rosenblatt Upgrade.$65 Target from them.... final straw...
Note
$45.41 / $45.46 NowTrade active
If we get a nice selloff into January, that would give us the RIGHT ARMPIT of the broader Head and Shoulders Pattern on this stock...$45.35 NOW
Note
All LONG volatility moving north...GLD UP UP
Trade active
So, AMD appears to be in a descending channel now, with a range:UPPER: $45.60
LOWER: $44.75
We need a break above $46 to show trend continuation today, or we
need a break below $45 to be able to draw a conclusion on the symmetrical triangle.
Note
We had a DOJI, and then 3 BLACK CROWS on the 5, so that would dictate based on all factors strong probability of more downside today... 80% I would think .Note
But that Rosenblatt upgrade today to $65 is nuts on the last trading day of the year.Note
They are probably right on the $65 Twelve Month target, maybe 50% upside from here, but today? Come on, wait for the bounce and move higher idiots... They have a deadline, they had to do it today or it isn't a forecast for next year...Note
So don't fault them if we tank...Trade active
Looks like the answer is resolution to the upside and continuation of trend...Trade active
Moving into the AMD 50 CALLS, HARD AND FAST!!!Breakout to $48.25
Note
???? If we don't get a selloff on Friday, we rocket for a January like you have never seen before...
VIX caving
Note
All the moves down since the $47.31 High may be consolidation patterns for the launch above $50...Note
Or Should I say resistance in the $47 to $48.25 range...Trade closed manually
We are closing any downside protection on AMD in the next few days. We don't believe the January selloff will materialize and the dollar collapse and signing on January 15 will carry us over 50. People will be re-balancing next week and we believe they will sell underperformers and chase semis and tech. Stay tuned. We are forming a bullish descending triangle and you should go higher if we don't get that sell off that everybody's anticipating which I think since everybody's anticipating it will probably not happen.Trade active
We like the Feb 21 50 call and 40 put. Perfect strange right now!!!Note
Strangle and cheapNote
Calls cost twice as much as puts right now.Note
Also have close deltas so if we break down below 40 or break 50 you will be very profitable in this trade.Note
So we are on the 50 and 55 calls all the way out til next year.See my newest post.
$47.50 breakout hopefully first week of January.
If not, we correct, buyers step in hard like the $45 supply/demand zone, and we
then go higher, only SHORTS will feel even more pain.
This is not 2000.
AMD is not a bubble stock from 2000 at $47.50
I have 1400+ pages of analysis on INTC, NVDA and responses, and responses to responses. They have a serious run on their hands this time. Both are going to feel the pain. NVDA a buy, INTC maybe short after earnings.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.