Updated

AMD - BACK IN CONSOLIDATION AGAIN?

I will spare you all the details, been trading AMD for years, and only trade AMD now full time. Quick notes:

1. Run up on trade truce, starting Oct 8th.

2. AMD runs to 41.76.

3. AMD pulls back to 39.

4. AMD consolidates for a week.

5. AMD to 43.65 (pre-market), pulls back to 41 (China trade, got ahead of itself - 8% in a day is nuts)

6. Back into consolidation range from 40 to 42. Should last a while.

7. Only time will tell, strong support at 39.05, from last consolidation channel.

8. Implied Volatility of AMD (IV) back to 38, was 46 when it went vertical to 41.76, then back to 26 (IV) the next day. Back to 31.90 today.

9. Need convincing break from about 43.50 here, 44, 46 target from here, very strong resistance from 2001.

10. We have left the 2006 AMD chart in the dust, which was a six week run from 36 to 41.75 and back to 36. Very interested eh? 35.5 resistance from the Google and Twitter run from 28 earlier this year, and the 41.75 reversal a while back, which was the 2006 high.

11. If we go higher we will get very volatile here, and the 2001 bubble chart comes into play with Pivot Points at 40, 43, 44, and 46.

12. I don't believe we break 46 and hold before January 28 earnings.

13. I don't believe we break below 38 before January 28 earnings.

14. I believe we are bubbly over the 42 mark.

15. I believe we are range bound until earnings or something big either on the Macro / AMD front.

16. AMD has priced a lot of news in, but has lots of room to run.

17. My Dec 2021 price target is a steady $50, with the $50 as the support.

18. You will be hard pressed to make money on AMD if it remains in the consolidation pattern like it did from the $41.76 high to $38 (approx, went lower intra-day) before earnings.

19. AMD moves quickly, so be nimble folks.

20. If it breaks out above 46, I would think 48 and 50 would be next.

21. Pullbacks to support and buying shares or calls is the only strategy right now.

22. The real nimble and adept and grab puts as well at tops, and add to the kitty.

23. Love AMD.

24. Have a great day.

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25. Every single day I wake up, look at the charts, and try to make my best determination of where AMD will go. I look at so much more than charts. Sentiment, news, trends, trump, you name it. The more data the better. Product roadmaps, earnings reports, press releases, and anything from Reddit, Techpowerup, or many Chinese sources on leaks, performance testing, channel checks for sales and so on.

My predictions are based on so much more that a "chart".

Given all this, I have no frigging clue, and NEVER WILL, as to what AMD will do on ANY GIVEN SUNDAY ;)

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But I believe I have a very strong handle on where AMD is going in the medium to long term. And that folks is investing!!!!

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And for anyone that thought drchelsea was a perma-bull that is not correct. I have been bearish, and neutral on AMD over the years. I shorted into the almost bankruptcy. Anyway, I would think long over the next 10 to 20 years with a few percentage in your portfolio would be wise.

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And I should be quite clear about AMD stock. If the stock market which I believe is fairly valued right now, and so is AMD, that is today, right now, not tomorrow, goes bananas to the upside in a 20 percent rally of irrational exuberance, make so mistake about it, AMD WILL PROBABLY GO TO 60 IN THE SHORT TERM.

Also, I should be really clear for all the shorts out there, this stock could, in a spectacular move to the downside, end up back at $30, where all the started! This market could correct to the downside hard, and let me tell you, a 10% drop in the market will take AMD down hard. PUTS ARE DEAD CHEAP NOW WITH THE VIX SO LOW, BUY PUTS IF YOU HAVE CONCERNS. THEY ARE CHEAP AND WILL ONLY TAKE A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF YOUR UPSIDE AWAY.

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And if anybody wishes insight into my education, background, and current position both in terms of vocation and stock positions, all which can be easily verified, you will need to contact me personally. Message me and I can provide a secure transmission channel. Last time I published this, my account was deleted and I was disappeared :) I guess fear is rampant when it comes to AI, Neural Networks, Quantum Computing and the like in terms of the financial industry. Getting tired of hearing on CNBC "The algos this and the algos that...", yeah I know the truth.

Trade active

UPDATE: Looking at 41.05 to 42.60 consolidation channel at this point. I love AMD, and will be forced to do the following:

1. Buy more AMD if it closes and holds $42.50 / Maybe an after hours purchase

2. Buy more AMD if it doesn't hold $42.50 today, and look for our bottom.

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UPDATE WAS 10:25AM EST

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Would love to show OUR charts. Anybody know if I can attach an image here somewhere?

Trade active

Looks like $41.60 may be hard to break today, even for the Wu Tang Clan with some major styles and Shaolin Kung Fu. If is doesn't snap $42.60 convincingly by noon, time to go mobile, and maybe head out and do some X-mas shopping and watch all my AMD stock and the covered calls on AMD theta my account into the New Year with decimals :)

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And for all you shorts looking drop my decimals? Looking to stick me for my paper? I have AMD puts in (very small just to cover a bit cause we have major AMD profit of course), and will be adding at $42.75, $43, and $43.50, only small amounts, as we are bullish on AMD, but need to cover ourselves over X-mas. January 17 2020 puts are the ticket, to go Skiing in B.C. and go to Turks and Caicos with the two bonuses we all got for our AMD performance this year!!!

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And don't every forget what Ray Dalio did a while back (look his up), took like a $150 Billion portfolio, and spent 0.7% of the whole shebang to collar it (Covered calls sold and puts bought to cover long stock, both out of the money). He is not a fool. He is one of the best. Go research. Puts are cheap. 2020 will be nuts.

Trade active

Having one more coffee and watching the $42.50 level which looks like a magnet today. if the RSI steadies at 50, buyers and sellers in equilibrium, time to head to lunch, right now buyers are very strong, and people are shorting like lemmings into this strength today, and also taking profits. You have no business shorting this stock today.

If you must short, wait for the close.

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Our computer models and AI have updated the current AMD channel.

Current consolidation Channel:

Lower: $41.65

Middle: $42.50

Upper: $43.40

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A close at $42.50 would confirm this. (This is of course if some Trump Tweet, or Macro or AMD specific Black Swan cometh).

We would be seriously looking at selling calls against our stock at this level if we can oscillate around this $42.50 for a bit...

AI suggesting this...

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A bit means days...

Trade active

AMD made a stab at $42.75. Wow what a stock. Lets see if she breaks it and runs to $43....

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In for a small set of PUTS to protect our massive long position @ $42.75, triggered.

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In for a small set of PUTS to protect our massive long position @ $42.75, triggered.

Trade active

Wow. $42.98, love this stock. Looking for a few more PUTS at $43. I am not bearish at all, need to protect profits.

This is getting crazy.

Go AMD!

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This stock simply won't go down. You can't see it on L2 or anything, but nobody is really selling. It is all people shorting at pivots points and possible resistance. This is really nice to watch for a change. The bears are moving this stock lol.

I have a new idea for AMD. Simply buy all you can afford, and sell everything you own and buy more, and then when the mailman's son tells you to "Buy AMD Mister", you sell and buy all the puts you can. This baby is going to 60 if this craziness keeps up.

Reminds me of Beyond Meat (BYND). Wife's Ex-Husbands' Kids Friend From School Tells Me "Hey buy Beyond Meat". The stock was at $230 before earnings.
I bought lots of PUTS when the market opens and we know how that ended...

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Mailman will be here in 20 minutes, lets see if he says to buy AMD!

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Mailperson

Trade active

AMD sitting at $42.68.

Nicely defined channel from $41.05 to $43.25. Looks like a sin wave. You can't ask for better than this.

Holding lots of AMD long, AMD covered calls (Jan 17 and Feb 21 Strikes), and Jan 17 and Feb 21 Puts (41 Strike) - Collaring some of profits since $27.75.

Heading out for X-mas shopping.

Close Prediction (This means squat): $42.32 :)

More upside coming. Rome was not built in a day.

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Oh, we currently own covered calls on the AMD 36, 38 and 40 strike for Jan / Feb and a few more months out...

Trade closed: target reached

AMD will stay on auto-pilot today. Unless I get an alert about a $.50 move in either direction from $42.65, I am done for the day.

Stay tuned, if you want.

I usually start at 4am and research. Get info from our AMD Neural Network, Sentiment Engines, Technical Analysis, and so forth.

Work from 9am to 12noon.

Only work later, if something crazy is going down. Think AMD run in 1 day from $28 to $35.50

I have never lost any money on AMD every based on any 30 day timeframe in the past 11 years.

Maybe I will start publishing before the market if you want to make money too.

Cheers.

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Peace out, collared for the rest of the day at 94.5%. Back at 3:30 maybe unless I stab someone at the mall, and the police won't accept AMD stock ;)

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As I stated earlier AMD stock RSI at 50. Reached equilibrium. I love this stock. Lets see what the buyers do for the rest of the day. Institutions haven't purchased much today by the way. Mostly retail investors. They bought substantial amounts in the 34 to 38 range, and are waiting for the December 31 closing price, so they can get there bonus checks and meet me in Turks :)

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Oh and the stock is up $1.40 today. That is a gift from whomever you would like to place in this sentence. A good period of consolidation is very important for this stock, and it's ascent to probably $250+ within 5 years. Our model shows a NVDA trajectory, once the 10-30 Billion market cap was decimated, NVDA went hyperbolic. Forget and AMD run from $27 to $50 or $2 to 20 or whatever you paid. Think about AMD as a mini NVDA, but stronger, faster, leaner, and on frigging Lisa Su steroids. This would be the next NVDA. We are talking a $900 stock with 10 years if we are correct. This is for your grandkids.

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Leaving now, and laugh all you want, look at TSM (We own that too), and they are the foundry for AMD. They are prepping for 3nm. Intel is on 10nm and 14nm, and AMD is 7nm, and 5nm is already design complete. They will be on 3nm when Intel and NVDA are trying to leapfrog with the high IPC 5nm. The 3nm UV on TSM will decimate all. Goodbye small cap stock.

Trade active

Back to see the close. $42.24. Hmmmm. Was hoping for $42.35 close I believe the prediction was earlier in the day ;) 11 minutes to go, lets see...

Real question is what will happen tomorrow?

The malls were empty and quiet, kinda like the market right now...

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Okay. End of day recap.

1. Gold Trade list. Gold getting hit. Everything on my gold watch list that is long, is red. Great sign.

2. Stock Market Crash list. Everything in the red, and badly. Great sign.

3. Semi Trade list. Semis just killing it across the board. All green, except STM. Very nice. Semis have led us higher since October.

4. China Trade list. Mostly up, looking good for follow through on Phase I, but a little muted in terms of movement. Looking tired.

I call consolidation on the whole market, lets see what tomorrow brings.

No additional long position added from AMD other than 1000 shares in pre-market at ~ $41.65 and I am personally holding.

AMD trades differently during every period of consolidation. We have algorithms for all this. We are hoping to catch something here in terms of direction.

At this point, I will think any gap up tomorrow morning may be sold, and there may be a buying opportunity tomorrow.

Research starts at 4am. Pre-market moves may be made.

Very nice 3 day move on behalf of AMD. The upwards move today was completely unexpected to this degree. Nice. So nice.

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Market Closed.....

AMD $42.35

WOW, JUST WON 1500US ON THE OFFICE AMD END OF DAY POOL.

Go about half way up the page here... "Close Prediction (This means squat): $42.32 :) " - but as you see I was hoping for $42.35 as that is what I had on the 50/50 draw!

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I win the office closing pool on AMD 7.48 percent of the time, and there are thousands of people in the pool. Do the math. Sometimes there is sharing for multi-matches which is a lot in tight ranges. Only bang on pays. Otherwise, pool continues, hasn't been won in a week :)

Trade active

Morning.

One of the AMD days. Like the dog days of summer. Think AMD will be choppy today in trade.

Stock while be hard pressed to make any meaningful move to upside and unless the market caves, will most like hold support in the $42 level.

Range: $41.05 to $43.25.

Concern: Move to $40 and meaningful break.

Consolidation continues I believe.

ANALYST COMMENTARY

1. (6:19amEST) We have Piper Jaffray doing a price target raise this morning on AMD to $40, from $35. See weakness for INTC on the server side now as well in terms of 10/14nm delivery.

2. (6:29amEST) We have Nomura Instinet again with 11 percent 2020 equipment sales rise, 8 percent market year or more, and AMD, INTC, KLAC, NVDA, TXN, ADI, MU, AND LRCX, his top picks.

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Nothing to see until closer to market open... lets watch the pre-market action for a bit. Or should I say have the network watch it for me...

Trade active

Level 2 / Time and Sales quite active starting around 8am EST this morning, ADF (Futures price adjuster, small quantities, large moves), ABOVE THE ASK, SMALL QUANTITIES.

AMD CLOSE: $42.35

PRE-MARKET: $42.45

Somebody is up to something with small purchases above the ask...

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SMH + 0.34 %

AMD +0.24%

NVDA +0.16%

TSM (AMD's Big Brother) +2.08

MU +1.15%

MRVL +0.28%

So far looking like strong pre-market for semi-conductors. Lets see if they hold the gains into the open.

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AMD sticking right to the $42.50 level I spoke about above yesterday. Classic consolidation look at the sin wave around $42.50. That level was established as equilibrium yesterday at 1:12pm EST.

Will trade with markets and semis for a bit here.

Seems to be scenario #2 today. We are consolidating in a tight descending channel of:

LOWER - $42.15
UPPER - $42.70

Looks like we go nowhere today. Theta added nicely to the account today.

Done for the day unless I get an alert for .45c move off of $42.50.

Happy Trading.

Trade closed: target reached

Done for the day. 2 hours work makes me sleepy ;)

Trade active

Just got an alert on AMD. Now consolidating in an ascending channel:

LOWER: $42.50
UPPER: $43.40

When the stock finally loops back around and breaks $43.50 we may bull flag again.

TARGET: $44, $46, $48

Looking for a $4 Flag.

Load the boat when we make a convincing cross of $43.50 and not a gap up.

Trade active

Okay. Heading back to the office. If we break $43 and run, we could flag today LOL. Watch out on this one if you are short.

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Institutions all over the bid. I guess they want to get paid. Major upside cometh...

Trade closed: target reached

Looks like strong resistance up to the $43.25 launch target. We are on autopilot until Friday December 20th as follows:

1. 10000 Share purchase, in married put, at $43.25

2. 1000 share AMD blocks, at $42, $41.75, $41.50, $41.25, $41, $40.75, $40.50, $40.25 and $40.

3. Rolling our protective put positions at $1.00 increments. Next would be $43.25. Then probably each round number up, $44, $45, $46, etc.

4. Relaxing.

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Well well well look what we have hear. We had resistance at $40.11 and that we tested many times, now we have resistance at $43.11. Question becomes how many times we test before we run to $47!

$43.11 IS THE BREAKOUT POINT.

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PUTS are being actively bought as the stock is rising toward $43. The PUTs have a specific delta / theta and gamma, and change prices during the trading day according to mathematical rules. When the stock rises and the PUTs are not going down as much as the math dictates, the only variable is DEMAND. This is because people like myself and other institutions are actively buying puts and rolling them towards $50. The demand is pushing up the price. Calls on the other hand, are being SOLD as we rise. This makes the covered calls the institutions hold worth less and makes them more money, and they are the ones buying puts and driving up the PUT prices. Please be wise as we move towards $50 and protect profits with cheap puts if you are not insane. If your time-frame is 1 Year+, doesn't really apply as you are not trading.

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This is why you are getting short-changed on the calls as the stock rises. The price is already ridiculously high in terms of the vol and premium for AMD, so you will find that unless we skyrocket, a slow daily ascent will not make you any money into earnings. I caution you if you want to make money on this stock into and through earnings, you need shares, not options. They are 10 steps ahead and are waiting for the retail investor.

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12:49EST, Not working today. Figured $42.50 magnet as stated in days past would take effect with the impeachment vote (not a real mover), and the fatigue of the semi trade, which has not a lot of buying, but no selling, kinda drifting on air right now. Watching for $42.25 and $42.05 level as areas of either additional to position, or additional collar puts.

Trade active

Looking for a $41.75 buy order at this point. We pulled the $42.00 order for now, and still kept the other 1000 share buys are the points stated above yesterday.

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Buy order on DAY and back time for movie to begin at the theatre ;) Hard life.

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And if you are wondering why AMD is down today, most likely continued consolidation, with the slight downtrend I spoke of (this is really good), and MU reporting earnings after the bell. Dow/Nas are up, just pressure on some semi names today.

SMH - .28%
AMD - 0.72%

We have a much higher beta than the SMH so that is about right.

We have also run up hard, and not back tested the 40 range at all really since the breakout at $40.11 last week.

Things to consider.

Buying at key supports is your plan.

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And please do yourself a favour, and if the stock drops, don't panic, it may gravitate towards the 40 level towards earnings. It may drift back to 40 in terms of a text book .25 incremental pullback and consolidation sideways patterns. Then when all $43 sell orders are pulled, and resistance has been cleared out, the stock makes it way slowly back to $43.11, like it did from $38 to $40.11 in the last flag continuation. Then it takes off and head to $46 / $48 level. You don't need to sell your shares, you can buy now and wait for the completion of the flag. You can also short if you have the jam, and hope for a slow ascent to the $40 range. The problem is that everybody want to own AMD. I did research last night at a few Canada Computers locations, spoke to managers, and spoke to corporate. It is really bad on the ground, much worst than the market, analysts, or channel checks reveal. Intel can't sell anything, and AMD is flying off the shelves, we are between Black Friday and Xmas and why would you buy anything now? AMD is moving hard. Canada Computers wants to start pushing back on Intel as they pay $$$ for premium shelf and display space, but their crap isn't moving.

So you will have buyers at all pullback. A 19 year old guy with a Ryzen 5 in his hand, told me he owned 10 AMD shares since $28, and was keeping it for his grandkids.

Get it?

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YOU CAN'T PAY FOR THAT KIND OF INTEL. YOU SIMPLY CAN'T. WORTH IT WEIGHT IN GOLD.

6 People queued behind me in line, chatting with the manager, and 4 of them purchasing AMD products. Asked the manager, how is Intel doing? I see Intel stuff is on clearance, and AMD stuff is close to full price? He said, "Nobody want to buy Intel, there appears to be a fundamental mind-shift in terms of the millennial buyer."

Trade active

Another day, another level of consolidation. Today looks like $42.75, yesterday was $42.50 as I discussed in that day and the day before.

Tight range, now forming a descending triangle.

May break the $43.11 level today, let's see.

As always ready to load the boat on the flag breakout.

See you at $44-46

Not much to see here. AMD making work just too easy.

That is something to think about.... seems way too easy now.

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AMD OPTIONS

PUTS: 3/1 in favour of buyers. Lots of money here if you catch a top.
CALLS: 2/1 in favour of the sellers. Lots of money for us, the institutions. Avoid unless grabbing the flag gents.

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We also put together a great VXX bull spread strategy as well yesterday, when VXX was 14.90.

Bull call spread, paying 6 to 1. VXX also being given away for free on the upside.

AI tells us something about to go down. Imagine this:

Institutions and CNBC and whatever telling you that everything good no worries, until after first quarter next year. Institutions have made 40% in the past 6 weeks if they were in and in correctly. Sell half of the institutional position running into December 31, and take bonus on 20% yearly run. Then sell the rest or most during first week of January and make another 20% for the entire 2020 year. You are done. Leave the retail investor holding the bag.

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Have lots of PUTS or a COLLAR, like Ray Dalio, then wait for the bottom, drop the hedge, and ride it back up and kill it. Who cares that 2021+ will crash to the ground.

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I think the world is about to get XMAS reverse played... HARD.

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Think about it this way, the institutions are sitting on massive year end profit. They use just a fraction of that to Collar the entire position into XMAS. They can't lose. They wait for the pullback / correction / whatever, as only the retail investor will be buying come the first or second week of January.

Trade closed: stop reached

Done for the day.

AMD drop below $42.35 or above $43.11 and back in action. Otherwise, doing some more shopping.

Have a great AMD day.

Trade active

BREAKOUT
BREAKOUT
BREAKOUT

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LOAD THE BOAT!!!

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MARRIED PUT, 100000 SHARES.

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Looking for additional puts at:

$43.25, $43.50, $43.75 and $44. Gonna be a tough go to $44 I think.

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Puts to augment the collar on our AMD stock, and covered calls.

Trade active

Just got an alert from our network, saying AMD displayed a 3 BLACK CROW PATTERN, at the HOD of $43.34. This was followed, but another set of 3 BLACK CROWS both on the 10 minute chart. I don't have network access here, but just forwarding the alert.

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Might be a short term reversal...

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AMD needs to close above $43 today ...

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If AMD closes below $42.70, and if towards $42.50, I would consider taking a little profit if you are heavy on profit, or picking up a few VERY cheap puts.

drchelsea1

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drchelsea1