I have 2 scenarios that may play out:
1st scenario (pictured) is that we are currently in a wave 2 correction (in blue w/ question mark), and wave 3 should follow sometime next week, or after earnings, and will bring price action to new high.
2nd scenario is that wave 5 has completed with the last 5 wave count (in pink) and a 4th wave correction in a larger degree will bring price action back down towards 73-75.
I am leaning towards the 1st scenario as price action made a new high after the last 5 wave count, which means this current downward movement cannot be a wave 3 as it would violate wave 1's price action. This makes me believe we are currently seeing an expanded flat as wave b surpassed the previous high and wave c broke out of the short term support.
I will be holding through earnings.
1st scenario (pictured) is that we are currently in a wave 2 correction (in blue w/ question mark), and wave 3 should follow sometime next week, or after earnings, and will bring price action to new high.
2nd scenario is that wave 5 has completed with the last 5 wave count (in pink) and a 4th wave correction in a larger degree will bring price action back down towards 73-75.
I am leaning towards the 1st scenario as price action made a new high after the last 5 wave count, which means this current downward movement cannot be a wave 3 as it would violate wave 1's price action. This makes me believe we are currently seeing an expanded flat as wave b surpassed the previous high and wave c broke out of the short term support.
I will be holding through earnings.
Note
If the current structure is an expanded flat, then using fib ratio analysis gives us a target for wave (c) of 85.40.
Note
So far so good. Excellent entry at 88-89 on the break of what might have been wave (c). The low at 87.24 could be used as a stop because if this is a new impulse wave to the upside, then corrective waves cannot violate it without canceling the wave count.
Note
Here is the alternative wave count. I am uncomfortable with this count because waves (1) and (4), within the circle, are not symmetrical. Rather, the former wave count simply looks better, which makes me believe we saw a corrective expanded flat as a wave ii, instead of a wave (5) and (a). Also, if there is a failure in price action, this latest low would likely not be wave (a), but rather, wave (1) of a new impulse wave to the downside that would end in wave A (green).
Note
Ready for earnings
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.