AMD caching the knife for desperate
Updated
I suggest to build up position in range 144,5$ - 140$
SL as on chart
Exit probably 180$ somewhere, where the bitch scared me out of my down position
Trade active
On may 3 I was already in long position red, so for me trade is activated, in the area suggested for build up i would increase. There is nothing wrong in having a red position until you understand what is going on, the reasons why you entered are valid and what you see confirms your picture (=reality check).
Anyway, I have decided for now to exit longs next Friday or Monday 20 and I expect the price to be around 171$ - 180$.
The reason is because the ICT together with the modified Alfred waves in combination with my horoscope tell me that and many channels, pitchforks and lines drawn in different directions confirmed my choice to exit next Friday... in addition, I observe still too many optimists for UP among retail and the alternative assets with high fixed income and valuation increase potential compete too much with risky expensive growth stocks. The industry could unload AMD to retail while it is expecting 200 again... Nvidia report could be not so great on 22 May...
Cross fingers and we will see, but for the moment is my base case.
Trade active
- General picture looks bullish: 30-oct-2023 - end of January 2024 we had increasing volume on a strong UP move.- The move 8-march-2024 to now is a retrace with continuously drying out volume ending in minimal weekly volume last week.
- The over-low 2-May made no-one horny to sell. Last week no-one wanted to sell even for higher price at 155$.
- the down move below 174$ doesn't look neat. A lot of retail (I suppose this are most retail) holding shorts 174 - 145$ are weak handed and should give up when scared properly.
- Fundamentals picture is OK for up
- media start to forecast +200% increase in PC sales for AI transition in households next 2 years with AMD main gainer
- No reasons for down except the price chart and trend lines. Buy call out of nothing looks stupid = reason for UP.
=> After a strong down trend it is hard to believe it is over, but as soon as bulls understand there is no more sell to come and those holding shorts are weak handed there could be the UP move I want for this week.
Cross fingers and we will see, but for the moment is my base case.
Trade active
= I think the prospects for AMD seem to become better and better (new orders from Microsoft, new products ... ), = no substantial sell pressure
= may be AMD is able to rise above 171 - 180 $
= The impression is AMD is less and less dependent on NVDA any more, so the NVDA report could have much less influence.
Today I can not see reasons for down... So HOLD long, It can probably do even better.
Note
- parameters of range are ok for to replace away- mass media and market participants sentiment is up
- the big guy who stopped the move last Friday (probably for to decrease his loss on short call options) had difficulties to buy the stock for delivery to the remaining sold calls = few want to sell
- expecting move to around 179$ today-tomorrow (this week) and will check the situation for continuation or other action
- If it goes into area 159.5-162 I probably increase long.
Dont forget ... support Ukrainian and Belarussian freedom fighters. "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing"
Trade active
For now looks like - some participants of the market (big MF) want to squeeze the retail to sell the stock under 165 ...
- an unloading the stock to the retail, as I have previously anticipated, should look not like what I just followed on chart.
- I have sold the puts at bottom (I had in the pocket for insurance) and increased position with some ITM options (as was in my plan from 22-05-2024).
I hope we have seen all the action program for today and the bigMF will push the stock to 179$ and higher where it should be.
Trade closed manually
OK, selling the puts was a mistake...I transform the bet parameters to reduce risk (and reward of course). The matter becomes uncertain and one should pick carefully the trades while keeping money distributed ...
Trade closed: target reached
Closed longs at 166$. Overall medium-good satisfied with forecast and execution, trade was profitable.
May be there will be another possibility to enter long around 152$ but it will be another trade... may be
Have a good weekend everybody!
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