12/20/24 - $amd - upside > downside at $120 taking a 1Y view
12/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
AMD
upside > downside at $120 taking a 1Y view
- tough call here b/c sentiment is so stretched
- thought this take was a pretty sober take on the situation and paints a really interesting angle. tl;dr that amd has something special and we've not yet seen the extent of their stretching their wings
x.com/AlphaSenseInc/status/1866871582540357740
- i'd point out at low 20s PE and PE growth in the 30-40%+ range (make up a number) and a king of x86 and starting to do cool things in asics... that's not expensive.
- looking at stock on it's
SMH (semis index) pair shows it's now had about a 50% drawdown.
- where's the bottom V? i don't know. but i'd guess sub 20x PE is probably where it'd shake out and that's about 15-20% lower and puts the stock at $100. and on the upside, multi-year view, the stock should compound EPS at a pt where you'd probably realistically say it should trade at 30x next year and hold or even expand that multiple into '27. so that's probably $150 conservatively and compounding toward $200 stock by YE '27. discounted back that puts you in the >$150 but below $200 as we look into next year.
- got busy with some Jan 17 2025 110C's for about $12 bucks to force myself to go deeper on the name. and this is a rough tape, so i've been keeping my cash balance high and remain with high conviction cash generators in my book like
NXT, 
TSM, 
UBER (and i remain liking 
META, 
NVDA but admittedly have been trading them pretty high frequency). of course i like 
GDLC, 
BITW too but also keeping those light. so AMD provides an interesting oppty to add the x86 factor to my top 3 semis names. let's call AMD added to my list of 4 buyable stocks TSM > NVDA > 
AVGO > amd. and given the move in AVGO recently it's debatable whether AMD offers better MT r/r, but the narrative/ tailwind for AVGO is certainly stronger and has the momentum factor working well for it.
what do u think?
V
AMDupside > downside at $120 taking a 1Y view
- tough call here b/c sentiment is so stretched
- thought this take was a pretty sober take on the situation and paints a really interesting angle. tl;dr that amd has something special and we've not yet seen the extent of their stretching their wings
x.com/AlphaSenseInc/status/1866871582540357740
- i'd point out at low 20s PE and PE growth in the 30-40%+ range (make up a number) and a king of x86 and starting to do cool things in asics... that's not expensive.
- looking at stock on it's
SMH (semis index) pair shows it's now had about a 50% drawdown. - where's the bottom V? i don't know. but i'd guess sub 20x PE is probably where it'd shake out and that's about 15-20% lower and puts the stock at $100. and on the upside, multi-year view, the stock should compound EPS at a pt where you'd probably realistically say it should trade at 30x next year and hold or even expand that multiple into '27. so that's probably $150 conservatively and compounding toward $200 stock by YE '27. discounted back that puts you in the >$150 but below $200 as we look into next year.
- got busy with some Jan 17 2025 110C's for about $12 bucks to force myself to go deeper on the name. and this is a rough tape, so i've been keeping my cash balance high and remain with high conviction cash generators in my book like
NXT, TSM, UBER (and i remain liking META, NVDA but admittedly have been trading them pretty high frequency). of course i like GDLC, BITW too but also keeping those light. so AMD provides an interesting oppty to add the x86 factor to my top 3 semis names. let's call AMD added to my list of 4 buyable stocks TSM > NVDA > AVGO > amd. and given the move in AVGO recently it's debatable whether AMD offers better MT r/r, but the narrative/ tailwind for AVGO is certainly stronger and has the momentum factor working well for it.what do u think?
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.