AMID looks much better from 8.05
Updated
I saw a Seeking Alpha article touting AMID for it's 14.6% yield from the 10's.
That's a lot of bottom heavy volume in that range rotating around 10.60 and a very weak looking bottom near 9.70. The market truly did accept the lower prices near 10 and did NOT reject them.
I know it's in a rally today, but it's still inside the 10.60 range area and will be until it clears and holds the offer above 12.20.
The issue for me is that the lower prices to 10 BEAT all the long positions from the 12.00 cluster from 2016. Any longs that WERE interested from 12 were pushed and held under water for quite some time. They could exit their longs or even swap to shorts when price gets back to 12.
8.05 and 6.85 look like much more appropriate hunting areas to me. 8.05 is where the shorts are modeled to run out of selling power that was accumulated through 2017. Aggressive buyers from the 6.85 cluster would presumably step back in at 8.05 as well (as a predictive guess). 6.85, of course, is where they would definitely have to step back in to defend their longs.
I look for AMID to head down to run out of selling volume at 8.05 and then attract an aggressive buyer.
That's a lot of bottom heavy volume in that range rotating around 10.60 and a very weak looking bottom near 9.70. The market truly did accept the lower prices near 10 and did NOT reject them.
I know it's in a rally today, but it's still inside the 10.60 range area and will be until it clears and holds the offer above 12.20.
The issue for me is that the lower prices to 10 BEAT all the long positions from the 12.00 cluster from 2016. Any longs that WERE interested from 12 were pushed and held under water for quite some time. They could exit their longs or even swap to shorts when price gets back to 12.
8.05 and 6.85 look like much more appropriate hunting areas to me. 8.05 is where the shorts are modeled to run out of selling power that was accumulated through 2017. Aggressive buyers from the 6.85 cluster would presumably step back in at 8.05 as well (as a predictive guess). 6.85, of course, is where they would definitely have to step back in to defend their longs.
I look for AMID to head down to run out of selling volume at 8.05 and then attract an aggressive buyer.
Trade closed: stop reached
I didn't trade this, and wasn't watching it.Holy crap that's a big nasty bear move. Makes me think that there were NO buyers that wanted to defend their positions at 805 or 6.85. Price just advertised right through where they would've been waiting. At this point, the market has shown its hand and the sellers are CLEARLY in control with NO sign of buyers. Expect oscillation from 8.00 down to 3.85 in wide rotation to try and find buyers again.
Anticipate that the Point of control will still be that 6.85 price as it was in 2016. But since no buyers are showing back up to the party, I would not even dream of owning a long until it's back and holding and closing above 8.05 for at least 1 trading day, demonstrating that at least some buyers are willing to hold overnight above 8.05.
There's no volume structure to speak of yet at these 6 levels, so probabilities are actually to move lower below 3.85 at this moment.
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