Bitcoin and the Peak of Inflated Expectations
My Bitcoin long-term TA broke; I determined why and I hope I'm wrong. The hash ribbon buys, no longer working, the momentum indicators I used to use to determine the next parabolic rise, broken. Plan B's floor model failed and Plan B's Stock to Flow is failing quickly. I needed to determine why this was.
I found my answer by comparing and contrasting technology adoption cycles. I think we are at the end of the Early Adopter's phase before Mass Adoption begins when there is a Peak of Inflated Expectations (personal opinion: this sounds like a marketing term developed by the elite as to hide their intentions to take over the technology and choose how they want to apply it at the cheapest price possible). As crypto has a definitive date when it was invented, it has taken 12 years for it to reach this point. Based on my understanding of the internet and railroad technologies (which have a less clear "invented" date), this took about 19 and 65 years respectively. With each paradigm-shifting technology, the adoption cycles speed up. I compared the similarities to Amazon's market structure right before the .com bubble popped and it is eerily similar to Bitcoin now. The same RSI numbers and weekly bearish divergences with similar numbers, the same volume decreases, the same wicked out double top, the same 50% crash in between the tops.
Also similar to the .com bubble pop is the macroeconomic climate at the time, a time of unprecedented financial looseness and cheap money flowing. Soon followed by the fed raising interest rates. Sound familiar?
In addition, 'where are the freedoms the internet promised us?' I think we will be saying the same thing about crypto in 10 years' time as institutions walk in and take control of the technology during the Trough of Disillusionment. Bitcoin will lose 95% of its market from this last top and find a final bottom out in the next year or two, with altcoins sinking much lower.
For better news, especially for holders, as the cycles speed up, so does the Trough of Disillusionment. It took Amazon 8 years from its bottom to see its highs realized yet again. I predict something similar, yet faster, for Bitcoin, seeing new highs again in 5-6 years after its bottom is anchored. Most of the current altcoins now will never recover though, just as in the .com bubble.
I think we have one more dead cat bounce coming up as the last opportunity for retail to get out, it will be short-lived. Again, I hope I'm wrong but the puzzle pieces just fit too well.
Disclaimer: These ideas were not original, but I did not keep track of my resources as I did not imagine I'd find anything of much use, nevertheless share it. I could not find them again, otherwise, I would link them here. As always though DYOR.
I found my answer by comparing and contrasting technology adoption cycles. I think we are at the end of the Early Adopter's phase before Mass Adoption begins when there is a Peak of Inflated Expectations (personal opinion: this sounds like a marketing term developed by the elite as to hide their intentions to take over the technology and choose how they want to apply it at the cheapest price possible). As crypto has a definitive date when it was invented, it has taken 12 years for it to reach this point. Based on my understanding of the internet and railroad technologies (which have a less clear "invented" date), this took about 19 and 65 years respectively. With each paradigm-shifting technology, the adoption cycles speed up. I compared the similarities to Amazon's market structure right before the .com bubble popped and it is eerily similar to Bitcoin now. The same RSI numbers and weekly bearish divergences with similar numbers, the same volume decreases, the same wicked out double top, the same 50% crash in between the tops.
Also similar to the .com bubble pop is the macroeconomic climate at the time, a time of unprecedented financial looseness and cheap money flowing. Soon followed by the fed raising interest rates. Sound familiar?
In addition, 'where are the freedoms the internet promised us?' I think we will be saying the same thing about crypto in 10 years' time as institutions walk in and take control of the technology during the Trough of Disillusionment. Bitcoin will lose 95% of its market from this last top and find a final bottom out in the next year or two, with altcoins sinking much lower.
For better news, especially for holders, as the cycles speed up, so does the Trough of Disillusionment. It took Amazon 8 years from its bottom to see its highs realized yet again. I predict something similar, yet faster, for Bitcoin, seeing new highs again in 5-6 years after its bottom is anchored. Most of the current altcoins now will never recover though, just as in the .com bubble.
I think we have one more dead cat bounce coming up as the last opportunity for retail to get out, it will be short-lived. Again, I hope I'm wrong but the puzzle pieces just fit too well.
Disclaimer: These ideas were not original, but I did not keep track of my resources as I did not imagine I'd find anything of much use, nevertheless share it. I could not find them again, otherwise, I would link them here. As always though DYOR.
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