ANF reversal or dead-cat bounce?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GltnaLiO/
ANF ANF has recently pulled back from its all-time high (ATH) following its latest earnings report. Despite strong earnings, same-store sales, and electronic sales growth, and a dynamic inventory selection, concerns about a potential recession have weighed on the stock.
Key Developments:
- Recently dropped below the 100-day Moving Average (MA)
- Retested the 200-day MA
- Bounced off the 200-day MA
- Broke out of a triangle formation on a 15-minute timeframe
- Broke above the 100-day MA but failed to break above previous support
Expected Outcomes:
- Bullish scenario: If ANF bounces off the 100-day MA and reclaims the previous support level, it could retest the 50-day MA, coinciding with the upper limit of the current negative channel. In this case, I would consider near-term put options to hedge against a potential retest of the 200-day MA.
- Bearish scenario: If ANF fails to hold above the 100-day MA and the $150 support level, it is likely to retest the 200-day MA.
I am closely monitoring the $150 level and will make decisions based on price action this week. Given the current macro environment, I prefer to be short this position. If the bullish scenario unfolds, I will wait for a retest of the upper channel limit before taking action. With key economic data, including retail sales, being released this week, expect volatility. Regardless of my position, I plan to be short-term and exit before the next earnings report.
Note
Alright so the bullish scenario has played out. With overhead resistance and low trading volumes at current level compared to previous bull runs I expect a pull back. The price has broken the 50 day moving average and previous upper band of the negative channel. I anticipate a short term pull back down to the 100 day MA. If the price finds support on the 50 day MA and upper band of previous channel there is still room for this to run. With earnings coming up there should be a lot of volatility in this name.
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