APPCBTC pair looking for bullish reversal after 100% retracement
Updated
The 4h chart is showing signs that the APPC/BTC pair has found a hard bottom for the first time since a sell-off starting from the all-time high of 0.00031841 over a month ago, retracing 100% to the all-time low of 0.00006534. The 1.0 fib retracement level was tested three times before a strong rally ensued. Price rose sharply, crossing SMA100 and the two previous local highs, before quickly dipping, retesting SMA100 and bouncing back up. Currently, the price consolidates between the 0.00008000 and 0.00009000 range, with 275% profit potential if reversal occurs and new highs are challenged.
Indicators at 4h:
- High volume breakout from downtrend line after testing and bouncing from fib 1.0 retracement level, holding above SMA100
- OBV and accumulation/distribution volume indicators: both support upward price movement and show bullish divergences
- MACD: signal line cross over, bullish histogram divergence
- RSI: currently just below overbought levels as the pair corrects from the big run.
- DMI: +DI bullish crossover, DMI crossed 20 and remains under 50, allowing for entry
On the 5min chart, the pair had a false break from the uptrend line and has crossed back above. The pair appears to have completed an ABCDE correction pattern ending at 0.00008100, creating room for further price rise.
Buy: 0.00008000-0.00008600.
Long-term buy: A more reliable long-term reversal signal will be the crossing of 4h EMA200 (around 0.00011250) and holding above 0.786 fib retracement level at 0.00011950. Also important to be careful at this time and to remember to place stop losses to minimize risk due to choppy market conditions.
Short term price targets:
1. 0.00008800 (at down trend line)
2. 0.00009700
3. 0.00010150
4. 0.00010600 (projection from breakout from 4 hour chart downtrend line and 4h SMA200)
5. 0.00011900 (0.786 retracement level)
Long term:
0.00016202 (0.618 fib level)
0.00021400 (monthly pivot)
0.00025800 (previous high and 0.236 fib level)
0.00031841 (previous ATH)
Stop loss: Below 4h SMA100 and local low support at 0.00007900.
Indicators at 4h:
- High volume breakout from downtrend line after testing and bouncing from fib 1.0 retracement level, holding above SMA100
- OBV and accumulation/distribution volume indicators: both support upward price movement and show bullish divergences
- MACD: signal line cross over, bullish histogram divergence
- RSI: currently just below overbought levels as the pair corrects from the big run.
- DMI: +DI bullish crossover, DMI crossed 20 and remains under 50, allowing for entry
On the 5min chart, the pair had a false break from the uptrend line and has crossed back above. The pair appears to have completed an ABCDE correction pattern ending at 0.00008100, creating room for further price rise.
Buy: 0.00008000-0.00008600.
Long-term buy: A more reliable long-term reversal signal will be the crossing of 4h EMA200 (around 0.00011250) and holding above 0.786 fib retracement level at 0.00011950. Also important to be careful at this time and to remember to place stop losses to minimize risk due to choppy market conditions.
Short term price targets:
1. 0.00008800 (at down trend line)
2. 0.00009700
3. 0.00010150
4. 0.00010600 (projection from breakout from 4 hour chart downtrend line and 4h SMA200)
5. 0.00011900 (0.786 retracement level)
Long term:
0.00016202 (0.618 fib level)
0.00021400 (monthly pivot)
0.00025800 (previous high and 0.236 fib level)
0.00031841 (previous ATH)
Stop loss: Below 4h SMA100 and local low support at 0.00007900.
Note
Intra-day:5min chart: After a big rally, currently showing consolidation with opportunity for short term profits.
- Possibly completed an ABCDE correction after a 5 wave impulse potentially ending at 0.00008100. The up trend line broke at 0.00008400, but support stood strong around 00008000. The price re-entered above the up trend line. The correction low remained above wave 4 low in accordance with Elliot wave theory.
- Bullish double bottom chart pattern forming around 0.00008100.
- RSI: bullish divergence for double bottom in oversold zone
- MACD: crossover just occured
- DMI: +DI bullish crossover. and DMI over 20.
Note
Short term update:Targets up to 0.00010150 were hit during yesterday morning's rally, and target 4: 0.00010600 was taken out minutes ago. After another consolidation between the local high of 0.0010300 down to a low of 0.0009300, the pair formed three bullish consecutive double bottoms before challenging and breaking the downtrend line at 0.00010200.
There were clear efforts to accumulate APPC by larger investors, evident by the strategic placements of large buy orders at sell pressure around the downtrend line at 0.00010000. Buyers are rallying with the 4h SMA200 and daily resistance R1 range between 0.00010500-0.00010800 currently. Volume indicators OBV and ACC/DIST show markedly greater bullish divergences compared to yesterday, suggesting increased accumulation, supporting price movement up.
Outlook:
The next interesting price levels are EMA200, now sitting around 0.00013000, and the 0.786 fib line at 0.00011900. VPVR historically shows decreasing volume in volume nodes above the 0.00012300 price level, so we might expect relatively rapid price expansion to the next high volume area around 0.00016000 if 0.00012300 is breached.
Position:
If you don't hold a position now, around the 0.00010000-0.00010500 range can be a good buy level for scalping or taking profits in the short term, since we expect large holders to defend their position (and to continue accumulating during pullbacks). Just remember to set a stop loss below 0.00010000, or wherever you're comfortable (the next notable support is at previous resistance at 0.0008500. A deeper correction is possible. RSI has spent a lot of time near overbought territory.
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