APTOS TOKEN UNLOCK
Updated
APT has a token unlock fast approaching, 0.45% of the total supply (4.5m APT) is to be unlocked at 0.5:30 UTC on 12th June 2023.
Here are my thoughts going into this event, how I feel the market will react as well as key areas to look out for.
Firstly looking back to the latest APT token unlock back in January. We saw initial sell side pressure as new tokens flood the market, a gradual decline in price throughout the day ending in a -9% drawdown. However the days that followed were very bullish, with APT climbing approximately 40% the following week post unlock.
This is not unnatural price movement during an unlock event, so although not guaranteed, we can assume similar will happen this time too. As the chart shows price is currently following a triangle pattern capped by a local high of $9.00 that is being tested as I write this post. Just above is a bearish orderblock created by a price action imbalance and happens to create a good midpoint for the short term range we find ourselves in. This area will be a large obstacle for APT and in my opinion will cap off the short term rally we have had going into the unlock.
Then as we approach June 12th, price sells off temporarily due to high sell side pressure of a large influx of new coins. Before buyers react and look to attack that midpoint once more with new buyers that happily bought lower during the unlock event, perhaps using the 4H 200ema as new support that has now upturned and looking bullish.
These are just my thoughts on the upcoming event, in reality nobody knows what the future holds however the past can be used to learn from.
DYOR
NFA
Here are my thoughts going into this event, how I feel the market will react as well as key areas to look out for.
Firstly looking back to the latest APT token unlock back in January. We saw initial sell side pressure as new tokens flood the market, a gradual decline in price throughout the day ending in a -9% drawdown. However the days that followed were very bullish, with APT climbing approximately 40% the following week post unlock.
This is not unnatural price movement during an unlock event, so although not guaranteed, we can assume similar will happen this time too. As the chart shows price is currently following a triangle pattern capped by a local high of $9.00 that is being tested as I write this post. Just above is a bearish orderblock created by a price action imbalance and happens to create a good midpoint for the short term range we find ourselves in. This area will be a large obstacle for APT and in my opinion will cap off the short term rally we have had going into the unlock.
Then as we approach June 12th, price sells off temporarily due to high sell side pressure of a large influx of new coins. Before buyers react and look to attack that midpoint once more with new buyers that happily bought lower during the unlock event, perhaps using the 4H 200ema as new support that has now upturned and looking bullish.
These are just my thoughts on the upcoming event, in reality nobody knows what the future holds however the past can be used to learn from.
DYOR
NFA
Note
05:30 UTC sorry for typo
Note
APTOS reacts as expected off the Bearish OB perfectly. A new local Lower low has been printed opening the door to more downside if price doesn't get back above the midpoint.
1 week to go until token unlock!
Note
APT looking to target that range low after being rejected by the midpoint. The catalyst being the Binance news. Very volatile market conditions so be cautious.Note
The closer we get towards the token unlock and the closer price gets towards the range low the more interesting things get. We know from past unlocks the price movement is:Initial sell off ---> Rally
I would look to go long if APT consolidates above the range low, the unlock brings it down below support into the stop loss area of the triple bottom longs. Grab liquidity and see a reclaim of the range low. Then once we get confirmation of the reclaim go long in anticipation of the post unlock rally.
Obviously this may not play out in this way at all, it's just what makes the most sense to me.
The SEC Binance news may invalidate this trade theory, and if it does then so be it. I will patiently wait for another set up. Currently still Short from the bearish OB at ~$9.40
Note
Perfect sweep and reclaim with a strong rally. Textbook stuff!
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