Short

ASPN - Dec 24 100SMA StrongWeak Bounce

Updated

ASPN
Premarket entry to capture price as it is within our Stdev range and we can be ahead of the crowd as we expect the greater force (RUT) to continue dropping

Sector: Energy Insulation, EV
Short Interest: 11.29%
ADR 6.38%
Does it respect the H1 100SMA (Min 3Months): Yes
Stagnent Revenue, negative EPS
Insider filings see the CEO selling around $30 the peak before the fall in Oct 24. Price has dropped 60% since then.
Is it a Hype Thematic (AI, Solar): EV and Energy, there is a bearish sentiment on EV demand. If Trump does remove the EV subsidies for consumers, there should be a larger fall in demand.

100SMA StrongWeak Bounce 🏀 (0.5R) v1.0
Trading risk at 0.5R as we are testing this strategy
This trade model is based on us riding the 100SMA trend waves of the strongest and weakest companies. It only executes well when greater force (RUT & SPX) is trending. Entries are at greater force key levels when it is consolidating. When greater force is taking off it is too late.
Entry
Within Stdev 100 zone
SL = ATR14 * 2 (Run full course no early exits)
Trailing stop (Previous Day Low or high)
Price launch off (D1)
D2 Closes
D3 Move SL to D2 Low

Trade active

Scaling 0.3R from BLMN risk savings. Calculated the risk using the same SL as the parent ASPN trade

Note

13 Dec Entry scaling unused risk

Note

Scaling up 1.1R since price has made a new low

Trade closed manually

Bad trade because of Exit.
I removed my trailing SL as I thought it was too close. If I had left it there this trade would have been a profit. Looking at the scale ups, it is clear that the larger scale ups should be upfront and decrease slowly and price will stall allowing us to close the trade before it moves back to the 100SMA.

Ronin_trader

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