ATOM - showing signs of strength
Updated
ATOM is the native coin of the COSMOS ecosystem. Mainly used for governance and staking, it is set to gain better value accrual this 2022. Mainly bullish on the coin due to 1) superfluid staking 2) interchain security 3) NFT marketplace 4) airdrops 5) EVMOS launch. Many of which will increase transaction count. Should value accrual be done right this time, alongside the hype with LUNA as the IBC ecosystem, we could be seeing a good increase in value. Technicals wise, we will analyze the possible move based on fibonacci pulled from the swing low in Jun 2021 and Swing high in Sept 2021. You can learn more about how to use the fibonacci retracement tool here. The recent bounce off the 0.382 fib and break of brearish trendline makes ATOM a potentially good trade
Trading plan - 3 scenarios
Very bullish -30%
Currently sitting at a price of $30 on 27/2, this would be the DCA price you have, selling at the 0.786 fib at $36 for repeated 20% gains. The fib was an old resistance which ATOM has retraced constantly from to the 0.618 levels at $30. You could then take profits at ATH at $44, wait for a retrace till $36 again to load up. Upper targets are 36, 44, 67 and 104, with the 1st week of April being the projected end of trading time frame. Levels are possibly visited once volume kicks in and IBC narrative is pushed forth. TLDR - sell on upper fibs, rebuy on fib retracements at lower levels or retest of ATH after it has been broken (some people might not get filled due to front running once ATH is broken)
Conservative bullish - 40%
Quite a normal behaviour based on the timeline of price action we see in ATOM + suspected delay of any of the above stated protocols. Here, we would expect a retracement towards $24 (retest of bearish trendline) to $26 (0.5 fib levels). DCAing at this range or slightly below 0.5 fib level would be key. Constantly selling above 0.618 fib levels ($30) could provide 16-20% gains as well, but remember to rebuy in at 0.618 levels if a new bullish trendline support is formed.. Upper targets are 36 and then ATH at 44 and then possibly 48-55 (10% rule past break of ATH, middle value between 45 and the 1.618 fib extension)
Bearish - 30%
Due to heavy bearish macrofactors. scam weekend pump, or delayed ecosystem launches, selling volume may spike and ATOM may see a retracement back to $21 (lower 0.382 fib) as stoplosses get hit and cascade of sells occur. I would then expect to see a reattempt to break out of the trendline, only to be rejected. If a breakout occurs but brearish stance remains, it would be good to add to the shorts near upper fib lines $26 (0.5 fib levels). TLDR - short on breakdown and then retest of bearish trendline, and also short on retracement to upper fibs. Lower targets are 21.7, 17.1, 16.3
Am generally more bullish due to lower selling volume as well as high selling volume bringing down price lesser. Due to volatile macroeconomics, if you are trading on platforms, be sure that it offers spot and perps like Bybit . it would be better to stay in spot rather than be trading perps/futures to prevent liquidation. Remember to set a stop loss to have a good sleep
Trading plan - 3 scenarios
Very bullish -30%
Currently sitting at a price of $30 on 27/2, this would be the DCA price you have, selling at the 0.786 fib at $36 for repeated 20% gains. The fib was an old resistance which ATOM has retraced constantly from to the 0.618 levels at $30. You could then take profits at ATH at $44, wait for a retrace till $36 again to load up. Upper targets are 36, 44, 67 and 104, with the 1st week of April being the projected end of trading time frame. Levels are possibly visited once volume kicks in and IBC narrative is pushed forth. TLDR - sell on upper fibs, rebuy on fib retracements at lower levels or retest of ATH after it has been broken (some people might not get filled due to front running once ATH is broken)
Conservative bullish - 40%
Quite a normal behaviour based on the timeline of price action we see in ATOM + suspected delay of any of the above stated protocols. Here, we would expect a retracement towards $24 (retest of bearish trendline) to $26 (0.5 fib levels). DCAing at this range or slightly below 0.5 fib level would be key. Constantly selling above 0.618 fib levels ($30) could provide 16-20% gains as well, but remember to rebuy in at 0.618 levels if a new bullish trendline support is formed.. Upper targets are 36 and then ATH at 44 and then possibly 48-55 (10% rule past break of ATH, middle value between 45 and the 1.618 fib extension)
Bearish - 30%
Due to heavy bearish macrofactors. scam weekend pump, or delayed ecosystem launches, selling volume may spike and ATOM may see a retracement back to $21 (lower 0.382 fib) as stoplosses get hit and cascade of sells occur. I would then expect to see a reattempt to break out of the trendline, only to be rejected. If a breakout occurs but brearish stance remains, it would be good to add to the shorts near upper fib lines $26 (0.5 fib levels). TLDR - short on breakdown and then retest of bearish trendline, and also short on retracement to upper fibs. Lower targets are 21.7, 17.1, 16.3
Am generally more bullish due to lower selling volume as well as high selling volume bringing down price lesser. Due to volatile macroeconomics, if you are trading on platforms, be sure that it offers spot and perps like Bybit . it would be better to stay in spot rather than be trading perps/futures to prevent liquidation. Remember to set a stop loss to have a good sleep
Note
Conservative bullish bands touched and showing accumulation signs despite some volatility
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