ANALYST´S NOTE: Analysis done by me, text for my view on the charts is generated by screenshot sent to ChatGPT - Tommi Za
🔍 Technical Analysis
🧱 Market Structure & Setup
Price has reached a key descending trendline (marked with thick dashed line) that has held since late 2023 — major structural resistance.
A double top (HH) appears to be forming just below this level, suggesting potential reversal.
An ascending wedge is in play, and price is now threatening a breakdown from it.
Structure shows:
Higher lows (HL) into resistance.
Potential loss of bullish momentum near 0.90 psychological zone.
🧩 Confluences for Short Bias
Touch of the multi-month descending trendline.
Failure to break above horizontal resistance (orange line).
Loss of momentum from RSI, which is rolling over from near the 60 level — a typical rejection zone in downtrends.
Price closing below 50 EMA and threatening the wedge base confirms the loss of strength.
🎯 Trade Plan
Short bias below the wedge base.
Targeting demand zone marked in blue (0.8580–0.8650 approx.).
First confirmation comes on a clean break below trendline support + EMA rejection.
🧠 Fundamentals
🇦🇺 AUD – Weak Bias
The RBA is largely neutral now, with limited scope for hikes due to softening domestic demand.
Australian labor market is cooling, and CPI is under control.
Risk-off sentiment globally tends to hurt AUD, especially with falling commodity prices.
🇨🇦 CAD – Mixed but Firming Slightly
CAD is weaker recently due to falling oil, but relative to AUD, it has held ground better.
The BoC is also on pause but not under the same easing pressure as the RBA.
If oil stabilizes or risk sentiment improves, CAD could gain back some strength.
→ Net Fundamental View: Slightly Bearish AUDCAD
Both currencies are soft, but AUD is more exposed to global risk sentiment and slowing Chinese demand.
CAD's relative resilience and positioning near a major technical rejection area strengthens the short case.
📌 Summary
Factor Signal
Structure Rejection at long-term trendline, double top
Pattern Rising wedge, breaking down
RSI Rejection under 60, bearish momentum shift
EMAs Price stalling below key averages
Fundamentals AUD weaker than CAD in current environment
Target Demand zone ~0.858–0.865
Entry Trigger Breakdown + lower high or retest of structure
🧨 Risk Note:
If price flips above the current double top and holds, invalidate the short bias. A daily close above the wedge highs would signal trend continuation.
🔍 Technical Analysis
🧱 Market Structure & Setup
Price has reached a key descending trendline (marked with thick dashed line) that has held since late 2023 — major structural resistance.
A double top (HH) appears to be forming just below this level, suggesting potential reversal.
An ascending wedge is in play, and price is now threatening a breakdown from it.
Structure shows:
Higher lows (HL) into resistance.
Potential loss of bullish momentum near 0.90 psychological zone.
🧩 Confluences for Short Bias
Touch of the multi-month descending trendline.
Failure to break above horizontal resistance (orange line).
Loss of momentum from RSI, which is rolling over from near the 60 level — a typical rejection zone in downtrends.
Price closing below 50 EMA and threatening the wedge base confirms the loss of strength.
🎯 Trade Plan
Short bias below the wedge base.
Targeting demand zone marked in blue (0.8580–0.8650 approx.).
First confirmation comes on a clean break below trendline support + EMA rejection.
🧠 Fundamentals
🇦🇺 AUD – Weak Bias
The RBA is largely neutral now, with limited scope for hikes due to softening domestic demand.
Australian labor market is cooling, and CPI is under control.
Risk-off sentiment globally tends to hurt AUD, especially with falling commodity prices.
🇨🇦 CAD – Mixed but Firming Slightly
CAD is weaker recently due to falling oil, but relative to AUD, it has held ground better.
The BoC is also on pause but not under the same easing pressure as the RBA.
If oil stabilizes or risk sentiment improves, CAD could gain back some strength.
→ Net Fundamental View: Slightly Bearish AUDCAD
Both currencies are soft, but AUD is more exposed to global risk sentiment and slowing Chinese demand.
CAD's relative resilience and positioning near a major technical rejection area strengthens the short case.
📌 Summary
Factor Signal
Structure Rejection at long-term trendline, double top
Pattern Rising wedge, breaking down
RSI Rejection under 60, bearish momentum shift
EMAs Price stalling below key averages
Fundamentals AUD weaker than CAD in current environment
Target Demand zone ~0.858–0.865
Entry Trigger Breakdown + lower high or retest of structure
🧨 Risk Note:
If price flips above the current double top and holds, invalidate the short bias. A daily close above the wedge highs would signal trend continuation.
🔍 Technical Analysis
🧱 Market Structure & Setup
Price has reached a key descending trendline (marked with thick dashed line) that has held since late 2023 — major structural resistance.
A double top (HH) appears to be forming just below this level, suggesting potential reversal.
An ascending wedge is in play, and price is now threatening a breakdown from it.
Structure shows:
Higher lows (HL) into resistance.
Potential loss of bullish momentum near 0.90 psychological zone.
🧩 Confluences for Short Bias
Touch of the multi-month descending trendline.
Failure to break above horizontal resistance (orange line).
Loss of momentum from RSI, which is rolling over from near the 60 level — a typical rejection zone in downtrends.
Price closing below 50 EMA and threatening the wedge base confirms the loss of strength.
🎯 Trade Plan
Short bias below the wedge base.
Targeting demand zone marked in blue (0.8580–0.8650 approx.).
First confirmation comes on a clean break below trendline support + EMA rejection.
🧠 Fundamentals
🇦🇺 AUD – Weak Bias
The RBA is largely neutral now, with limited scope for hikes due to softening domestic demand.
Australian labor market is cooling, and CPI is under control.
Risk-off sentiment globally tends to hurt AUD, especially with falling commodity prices.
🇨🇦 CAD – Mixed but Firming Slightly
CAD is weaker recently due to falling oil, but relative to AUD, it has held ground better.
The BoC is also on pause but not under the same easing pressure as the RBA.
If oil stabilizes or risk sentiment improves, CAD could gain back some strength.
→ Net Fundamental View: Slightly Bearish AUDCAD
Both currencies are soft, but AUD is more exposed to global risk sentiment and slowing Chinese demand.
CAD's relative resilience and positioning near a major technical rejection area strengthens the short case.
📌 Summary
Factor Signal
Structure Rejection at long-term trendline, double top
Pattern Rising wedge, breaking down
RSI Rejection under 60, bearish momentum shift
EMAs Price stalling below key averages
Fundamentals AUD weaker than CAD in current environment
Target Demand zone ~0.858–0.865
Entry Trigger Breakdown + lower high or retest of structure
🧨 Risk Note:
If price flips above the current double top and holds, invalidate the short bias. A daily close above the wedge highs would signal trend continuation.
🔍 Technical Analysis
🧱 Market Structure & Setup
Price has reached a key descending trendline (marked with thick dashed line) that has held since late 2023 — major structural resistance.
A double top (HH) appears to be forming just below this level, suggesting potential reversal.
An ascending wedge is in play, and price is now threatening a breakdown from it.
Structure shows:
Higher lows (HL) into resistance.
Potential loss of bullish momentum near 0.90 psychological zone.
🧩 Confluences for Short Bias
Touch of the multi-month descending trendline.
Failure to break above horizontal resistance (orange line).
Loss of momentum from RSI, which is rolling over from near the 60 level — a typical rejection zone in downtrends.
Price closing below 50 EMA and threatening the wedge base confirms the loss of strength.
🎯 Trade Plan
Short bias below the wedge base.
Targeting demand zone marked in blue (0.8580–0.8650 approx.).
First confirmation comes on a clean break below trendline support + EMA rejection.
🧠 Fundamentals
🇦🇺 AUD – Weak Bias
The RBA is largely neutral now, with limited scope for hikes due to softening domestic demand.
Australian labor market is cooling, and CPI is under control.
Risk-off sentiment globally tends to hurt AUD, especially with falling commodity prices.
🇨🇦 CAD – Mixed but Firming Slightly
CAD is weaker recently due to falling oil, but relative to AUD, it has held ground better.
The BoC is also on pause but not under the same easing pressure as the RBA.
If oil stabilizes or risk sentiment improves, CAD could gain back some strength.
→ Net Fundamental View: Slightly Bearish AUDCAD
Both currencies are soft, but AUD is more exposed to global risk sentiment and slowing Chinese demand.
CAD's relative resilience and positioning near a major technical rejection area strengthens the short case.
📌 Summary
Factor Signal
Structure Rejection at long-term trendline, double top
Pattern Rising wedge, breaking down
RSI Rejection under 60, bearish momentum shift
EMAs Price stalling below key averages
Fundamentals AUD weaker than CAD in current environment
Target Demand zone ~0.858–0.865
Entry Trigger Breakdown + lower high or retest of structure
🧨 Risk Note:
If price flips above the current double top and holds, invalidate the short bias. A daily close above the wedge highs would signal trend continuation.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.