AUDCHF - Breakout Of The Downwards Trend!
Updated
Analysis:
Looking at the chart we can see that we were in a strong downwards trend however at the start of June we were able to break out of this trend and put in a higher high which shows us that the bears have lost control of the market and the bulls are taking over. We have more confluence that price broke out of this downwards trend when we see that the downwards trendline was broken. Price is now pulling back to an area where we previously saw key resistance which we now expect will hold as support as this very often happens. To give added confluence that this area will hold we have the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib level so we expect that around this area we will see buyers sat, wanting to enter into long positions and push price higher. Taking a look at the fundamentals the AUD is the 6th strongest major currency where as the CHF is the 5th strongest major currency so there isn't really much in it here and it actually slightly goes against out thesis but when we dig a little deeper we find out why we prefer the AUD over the CHF. As of the most recent filling for institutional positions we saw a decrease in both long and short positions on the AUD which isn't positive but it also isn't negative. If we take a look at institutional positioning on the CHF we see that as of the most recent filling there was a decrease in long positions and an increase in short positions showing us that the CHF might have some bearishness on the way. From the SNB press conference that we had on Thursday things didn't look too good for the CHF which is another thing keeping us away from going long on the CHF. On this coming Wednesday we have CPI coming out for the AUD which could be the catalyst that we need to rocket price higher so this is what we will be watching out for but for now we have all of the confluences we need to be bullish on AUDCHF which is why we have a long bias on this pair.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Looking at the chart we can see that we were in a strong downwards trend however at the start of June we were able to break out of this trend and put in a higher high which shows us that the bears have lost control of the market and the bulls are taking over. We have more confluence that price broke out of this downwards trend when we see that the downwards trendline was broken. Price is now pulling back to an area where we previously saw key resistance which we now expect will hold as support as this very often happens. To give added confluence that this area will hold we have the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib level so we expect that around this area we will see buyers sat, wanting to enter into long positions and push price higher. Taking a look at the fundamentals the AUD is the 6th strongest major currency where as the CHF is the 5th strongest major currency so there isn't really much in it here and it actually slightly goes against out thesis but when we dig a little deeper we find out why we prefer the AUD over the CHF. As of the most recent filling for institutional positions we saw a decrease in both long and short positions on the AUD which isn't positive but it also isn't negative. If we take a look at institutional positioning on the CHF we see that as of the most recent filling there was a decrease in long positions and an increase in short positions showing us that the CHF might have some bearishness on the way. From the SNB press conference that we had on Thursday things didn't look too good for the CHF which is another thing keeping us away from going long on the CHF. On this coming Wednesday we have CPI coming out for the AUD which could be the catalyst that we need to rocket price higher so this is what we will be watching out for but for now we have all of the confluences we need to be bullish on AUDCHF which is why we have a long bias on this pair.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Trade active
With our entry criteria being met and our order being filled we are now long AUDCHF expecting that price will rally and continue higher. Be sure to following along as we keep you updated!Note
Update - 1Yesterday's candle close formed a hammer candle which is a reversal candle stick pattern that we often see. This gives us more confidence in our trade idea as this is another confluence that adds onto our bullish reversal thesis that we're expecting. Today we'll be looking for the candle close to form a bullish engulfing as this will add to our idea further and give us even more confidence in this setup. We'll be sure to update you all tomorrow to see if we get that candle close we want to form the candle stick pattern we want to see.
Note
Update - 2Yesterday we were looking for a bullish engulfing but we didn't get that close, instead we got an inverted hammer which is another bullish reversal candlestick pattern so this give us more confidence in this trade. Early this morning we did have some news that came out for the AUD which was worse then expect, so this pushed price to the downside slightly but we're already seeing price recover and try to push higher showing the strong bullish AUD momentum we have currently and we expect this to continue. To add to this as of the most recent report on institutional positioning we saw a big decrease in short positions and a huge increase in long positions for the AUD which shows the strength the AUD has. With institutions stepping into long positions for the AUD this is a strong sign that we could start to see some bullishness for the AUD which would help our trade. Although we're currently in drawdown we still bullish and in this trade. We will continue to stay in this trade until our stop loss or take profit is hit. We've now just got even more reasons to be long on this pair.
Note
Update - 3Although yesterday we didn't get the daily candle close we wanted we are still in this trade as price hasn't yet reached out stop loss so our idea isn't wrong yet. We won't know if we're right or wrong until our stop loss or take profit gets hit. Yesterday's daily candle close was very bearish but this was because of the AUD news that came out on Wednesday. We believe that this spike to the downside was an over exaggeration and we expect that we will see price recover and head to the upside, which is what we're already starting to see, so this is a good sign for our trade.
Note
Update - 4This is another trade of our that has benefited from the recent AUD strength like we expected and this might finally be the start of the AUD bullishness that we called out. Our trade was in a fair bit of drawdown however on Friday we saw a lot of our drawdown recovered as price made a move back to the upside because of the AUD bullishness that we saw. This shows us the momentum and bullish pressure on the AUD and expect to see this AUD strength continue, so this is what we'll be looking to happen as the week goes on.
Note
Update - 5Yesterday we did have CPI come out for the CHF which was worse then expected, giving speculators another reason to be bullish on this pair. To add onto this, early this morning we had the cash rate and RBA rate statement come out for the AUD. Whilst the cash rate was as expected we did see a bullish outlook in the RBA rate statement so this favours our trade and this is signs of possible bullishness for the AUD, which is what we've been expecting for a while now, and we have more confluence to back up our bullish outlook for the AUD. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning we saw the CHF stay neutral whereas the AUD saw a huge decrease in short positioning, showing that the "smart money" no longer wants to be short on the AUD. This points to possible signs of bullishness for the AUD which favours our trade and this gives us more confidence in the trade that we have open on this pair.
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