Short

AUDJPY Monthly Bear Flag Pullback

Updated

Bigger picture bigger timeframe view.
LL and LH on Monthly.
Pullback to bear flag break showing potentially good RR entry and longer term direction.
Longer term monthly target at 0.5 fib. Popular support at 72.
This could take a while.

Note

Last Friday's COT report 12th Oct.
cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

AUD
Traders Short: 68.
Traders Long: 39.

JPY
Traders Short: 89.
Traders Long: 67.

JPY weak, but with AUD sell off, perhaps.

Note

Today's Friday COT report as at 19th Oct.
Have a look at the report for yourself and interpret.
cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

AUD
Traders Short: 63.
Traders Long: 43.
A larger reduction in Total AUD Long contracts, versus the reduction shown of Short contracts as at Tuesday. Number of traders involved somewhat relevant and weighted to Short.

JPY
Traders Short: 93.
Traders Long: 66.
A very slight increase in number of Long Contracts, compared to the increase in Short Contracts. Weighted number of traders involved versus contracts showing a vulnerability or fear (or punt) through their RR size. Remember this was as at Tuesday, may explain the break through ICE.

AUD appears to be distributing some supply, JPY still weak but is showing signs of strength and some may see now as a good price to buy JPY. Next week could be JPY week, good luck, we will see.

I should probably turn the above into a clearer metric of volume weighted by traders - so let me know if that's of any use.

Note

Last Friday's COT report 26th Oct.

AUD
Traders Short: 62.
Traders Long: 47.

Large increase in traders being short the AUD showing that tide is turning and showing the beginning of a distribution and then eventual mark-down. From the report you can see that the Open Interest of Short positions of the AUD increased by 4,896 confirming the top of bearish sentiment of the the AUD compared to last week.

JPY
Traders Short: 95.
Traders Long: 67.

No real change in positions for the JPY in terms of the number of traders in the game however you can see in the report that the change in Open Interest of JPY Short positions was -1,264, i.e. more bullish toward YEN. Therefore some profit taking or some scaling down of existing short positions.

It does look like this market is beginning a new selling phase.

Note

Last Friday's COT report release for 2nd Nov positions.

Contracts of AUD 100,000 (74K)
AUD
Traders Short: 60 (+2,239 contracts = +165m, +2.75m avg.)
Traders Long: 49 (+440 contracts = +32.5m, +660k avg.)
LIttle change in traders long or short. Large increase in AUD short positions.

Contracts of JPY 12,500,000 (110K)
JPY
Traders Short: 88 (-12,757 contract = -1.4bill, -16m avg.)
Traders Long: 71 (-15,886 contacts, = -1.75bill, -24.5m avg.)
Compared to last week, fewer traders short. More traders long. Still roughly equal.

As usual, movement driven mostly by AUD bias rather than JPY interest. Weakening AUD, potential for bias to form on JPY could cause further decline in AUDJPY.

Large increase +3,317 contracts in Long AUD non-reportable positions (retail traders) creating additional liquidity for the drop that occurred last week, scooped up by smart money.

ShipsyCapital

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