Why we don't trust this bounce on AUD/JPY
My short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as anticipated.
MS
MS
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Another lackluster 'rally' on AUD/JPY despite broader yen weakness. I cannot say with confidence we have seen 'the' corrective high on Thursday, though the daily chart does have a bearish pipnbar. The the 4-hour chart does have the early hallmarks of a potential rising wedge. Which can have a habit of stopping bears out prematurely as prices grind higher.
But should momentum turn clearly lower - ideally coupled with a decent catalyst, I'd make the assumption the higher timeframe move has resumed.
MS
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.