These are the 2 scenarios that I see for AUDJPY on the 4h timeframe.
Scenario 1 - Deeper Pullback and Continuation:
In this scenario, the price could initially drop further from current levels around 96.24, potentially reaching the 95.50 area, forming a deeper pullback. This move would shake out some weak longs and create a stronger base for the next move up. After this deeper correction, the pair could find strong buying interest and initiate a significant bounce, potentially targeting the recent highs around 98.50-99.00. This scenario would align with the overall consolidation pattern we've seen in recent months.
Scenario 2 - Orange Box Retest:
The alternative scenario shows price moving down to retest the orange box support zone around 94.00. This would represent a more bearish development, as it would mean breaking below the recent swing lows. The orange box appears to be a significant support area, and reaching this level could trigger one of two responses: either a strong bounce from this major support zone, or if the support breaks, it could lead to a more substantial decline. The reaction at this zone would be crucial for determining the pair's medium-term direction.
Both scenarios suggest some downside in the near term, with the key difference being the depth of the pullback and the subsequent reaction at these lower levels.
Scenario 1 - Deeper Pullback and Continuation:
In this scenario, the price could initially drop further from current levels around 96.24, potentially reaching the 95.50 area, forming a deeper pullback. This move would shake out some weak longs and create a stronger base for the next move up. After this deeper correction, the pair could find strong buying interest and initiate a significant bounce, potentially targeting the recent highs around 98.50-99.00. This scenario would align with the overall consolidation pattern we've seen in recent months.
Scenario 2 - Orange Box Retest:
The alternative scenario shows price moving down to retest the orange box support zone around 94.00. This would represent a more bearish development, as it would mean breaking below the recent swing lows. The orange box appears to be a significant support area, and reaching this level could trigger one of two responses: either a strong bounce from this major support zone, or if the support breaks, it could lead to a more substantial decline. The reaction at this zone would be crucial for determining the pair's medium-term direction.
Both scenarios suggest some downside in the near term, with the key difference being the depth of the pullback and the subsequent reaction at these lower levels.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.