After the release of strong employment data from Australia, the AUD/JPY currency pair increased by more than 100 dollars. Considering the interest rate differential between the two countries and the lack of further rate hikes in Japan, the likelihood of the first scenario is higher. The second scenario is more likely if the market becomes risk off, leading to the rise of safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen. In that case, we would expect to see a decline in the AUD/JPY pair down to the bottom of the triangle pattern.
Target for the first scenario (long trade): 101.425
Target for the second scenario (short trade): 99.705