Trading idea AUDJPY, break at trendline

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NOTE: I am not an expert trader by any means, I am open input and sharing my ideas. I am still learning.
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There is a break at the trendline.
I have two ideas.....

#1.. it was a fake out and will continue up to make an extension to 127%. (Near, green arrow head and buy position projection )
Factors:
A) Price still holding above key support
B) RSI oversold
C) News is positive for this pair
News= Increase in Aus. employment data, and trade surplus exceeded expectations = strength

#2 it will retest below trendline and continue down. (Somewhere near, red arrow head and sell position projection )
Factors:
A) Break of trendline
B) Some indicatiors are neutral, so price can do either way

We shall wait and see.
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(please know arrow bounces are not exact.... just showing price may bounce before making it to sell or buy targets.)
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Open to all advise or comments. Would love input on how I break down the market or make my analysis ...
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FYI there is not audio my cursor is explaining this text here and the text on screen.
Happy trading.

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