AUD/JPY long: Aussie kicks like a kangaroo-unexpectedly
Hello traders
Best wishes for a prosperous and low stress 2025.
I purposely waited for the recent USD NFP print to enter into any meaningful trade. The USD/JPY reaction is what I was looking for. It is turning up and this rising tide has lifted all the major JPY cross boats.
I have initiated a long AUD/JPY position at 96.962.
FUNDAMENTAL REASONS:
BoJ Governor Ueda has left the door open to a rate hike on the Jan 24th BUT left an escape route by referencing the need to evaluate data. FOMC Chair Powell has taught him well :)
Keep an eye on Deputy Governor Himino's speech and especially press conference on 1/14/2025.
The RBA statement in December unexpectedly took on a dovish tone which expedited the expected but not confirmed rate cut from March to February 2025.
ECONOMIC calendar JPY:
1/23/25 National Core CPI
1/23-24/2025 BoJ rate decision
ECONOMIC calendar AUD:
1/15/2025 Employment change. And this is the "kicker". Australian employment change expectations in general can be significantly off mark. If it comes in strong, the RBA may reconsider the need to cut rates. Same for CPI and PPI.
1/28/2025: CPI
1/30/2025: PPI
2/18/2025: RBA Rate decision
TECHNICAL analysis:
AUD/JPY shows three consecutive higher weekly closes. And closed on the 100 week MA
the 4 hour chart shows the retest of the weekly 96.82 breakout level higher.
INDICATORS: RSI, UO and ADX are all turning up.
The pair is also in an ascending channel.
My favorite part of this trade is that the downside should not be a significant hit if the stop is just below 96.82.
However, do you own research. As always, I invite feedback.
Best of luck.
Best wishes for a prosperous and low stress 2025.
I purposely waited for the recent USD NFP print to enter into any meaningful trade. The USD/JPY reaction is what I was looking for. It is turning up and this rising tide has lifted all the major JPY cross boats.
I have initiated a long AUD/JPY position at 96.962.
FUNDAMENTAL REASONS:
BoJ Governor Ueda has left the door open to a rate hike on the Jan 24th BUT left an escape route by referencing the need to evaluate data. FOMC Chair Powell has taught him well :)
Keep an eye on Deputy Governor Himino's speech and especially press conference on 1/14/2025.
The RBA statement in December unexpectedly took on a dovish tone which expedited the expected but not confirmed rate cut from March to February 2025.
ECONOMIC calendar JPY:
1/23/25 National Core CPI
1/23-24/2025 BoJ rate decision
ECONOMIC calendar AUD:
1/15/2025 Employment change. And this is the "kicker". Australian employment change expectations in general can be significantly off mark. If it comes in strong, the RBA may reconsider the need to cut rates. Same for CPI and PPI.
1/28/2025: CPI
1/30/2025: PPI
2/18/2025: RBA Rate decision
TECHNICAL analysis:
AUD/JPY shows three consecutive higher weekly closes. And closed on the 100 week MA
the 4 hour chart shows the retest of the weekly 96.82 breakout level higher.
INDICATORS: RSI, UO and ADX are all turning up.
The pair is also in an ascending channel.
My favorite part of this trade is that the downside should not be a significant hit if the stop is just below 96.82.
However, do you own research. As always, I invite feedback.
Best of luck.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.