Dec 5
### Trade 1 - Buy AUDNZD Analysis #### Factors Overview: 1. **Seasonals**: - NZD is bullish (25 Nov - 11 Dec), while GBP is neutral. - **Bias**: Slightly favors NZD. 2. **COT Index**: - NZD at the bottom, GBP near the top. - **Bias**: Favors AUD due to stronger relative COT positioning. 3. **Non-Commercials**: - GBP shows "Buy," while NZD indicates "Sell." - **Bias**: Favors AUD. 4. **Endogenous Factors (Endo)**: - NZD is decreasing, while GBP remains neutral. - **Bias**: Supports AUD. 5. **Exogenous Factors**: - **GDP**: Positive for GBP, negative for NZD → Favors AUD. - **BOP Change**: Negative for GBP, positive for NZD → Favors NZD. - **Stocks**: Positive for GBP, negative for NZD → Favors AUD. - **IR (Interest Rates)**: Positive for GBP, negative for NZD → Favors AUD. - **Overall Exogenous Score**: GBP (32.5), NZD (-150). - **Bias**: Strongly supports AUD. 6. **Conditional Scoring**: - Positive: GBP (10), NZD (13). - Negative: GBP (5), NZD (5). - **Bias**: Slight advantage to NZD on positivity score, but largely neutral. --- #### Final Bias: Despite the seasonals favoring NZD, the combined COT, endogenous, and exogenous factors strongly favor AUD. --- #### Trade Bias: **Buy AUDNZD**