AUDNZD potential buying opportunity (70+pips)
Both currencies are under recover since risk on sentiment took over. Long term direction is still to be confirmed by both currencies since uncertainities and virus danger are still not gone. In both scenarios I see AUD still better and safer currency to long vs NZD.
SENTIMENT/SECULAR ANALYSIS:
Institutions are still holding short positions on both currencies, but retailers are going the other way. In this particular case there is more traders net short this pair than long since confluence levels got hit. Going against crowds can be profitable, specially if price is not moving fast in any direction.
By looking at 13w secular performance analysis chart I see AUD is almost closing the gap vs USD and safe haven currencies (first time since March 01) while NZD is still lagging (more due fundamental reasons) so it gives me a better edge over the next market move knowing that in both scenarios (risk on/off) AUD is likely to perform better in close future.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Pair looks bearish on 1h/4h timeframes and very close to confluence weekly pivot. However I will consider going long if 1.073 level gets ceased along with 100ema. Pair might fall even lower before we see new leg upside, but until then this is scenario I will follow.
1D timeframe: 20ema supports, previous resistance high as support - very confluent level
4h timeframe: 100ema support + confluence level
IDEA:
Buying AUDNZD on 1.073 breakout. SL: 10 pips below last support TP: 70 pips (1.08 area) - TP2: 1.083
SENTIMENT/SECULAR ANALYSIS:
Institutions are still holding short positions on both currencies, but retailers are going the other way. In this particular case there is more traders net short this pair than long since confluence levels got hit. Going against crowds can be profitable, specially if price is not moving fast in any direction.
By looking at 13w secular performance analysis chart I see AUD is almost closing the gap vs USD and safe haven currencies (first time since March 01) while NZD is still lagging (more due fundamental reasons) so it gives me a better edge over the next market move knowing that in both scenarios (risk on/off) AUD is likely to perform better in close future.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Pair looks bearish on 1h/4h timeframes and very close to confluence weekly pivot. However I will consider going long if 1.073 level gets ceased along with 100ema. Pair might fall even lower before we see new leg upside, but until then this is scenario I will follow.
1D timeframe: 20ema supports, previous resistance high as support - very confluent level
4h timeframe: 100ema support + confluence level
IDEA:
Buying AUDNZD on 1.073 breakout. SL: 10 pips below last support TP: 70 pips (1.08 area) - TP2: 1.083
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