The June range is preserved heading into the close of the month with a massive outside-weekly reversal taking Aussie back into key resistance on Friday. Note that momentum is approaching the 60-level for the first time this year and a break higher alongside a breach above 6550 could fuel a substantial rally here- watch the weekly close.
Initial support rests with the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357 and is backed closely by 6290/6315- a region defined by the yearly low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the median-line converges on this level over the next few weeks and we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level- a break / weekly close below would threaten downtrend resumption toward the next major technical consideration at 6162/79.
A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance with key resistance seen at the 2019 lows near 6670. Ultimately a break above the upper parallel (blue) would be needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2024 HWC / yearly open near 6795-6810 and 6900.
Bottom line: An outside-weekly reversal has covered the entire monthly range with the Australian Dollar now testing critical resistance for an eighth-consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6550 needed to fuel the next move.
-MB
Initial support rests with the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357 and is backed closely by 6290/6315- a region defined by the yearly low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the median-line converges on this level over the next few weeks and we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level- a break / weekly close below would threaten downtrend resumption toward the next major technical consideration at 6162/79.
A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance with key resistance seen at the 2019 lows near 6670. Ultimately a break above the upper parallel (blue) would be needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2024 HWC / yearly open near 6795-6810 and 6900.
Bottom line: An outside-weekly reversal has covered the entire monthly range with the Australian Dollar now testing critical resistance for an eighth-consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6550 needed to fuel the next move.
-MB
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.