Flat on the AUD - anyone see different?
Weekly gain/loss: +1.88%
Weekly closing price: 0.7640
A small area seen comprised of a weekly channel support extended from the low 0.6827, a weekly 50.0% value at 0.7475 taken from the high 0.8125 and a nice-looking weekly AB=CD (see black arrows) 161.8% Fib ext. point situated at 0.7496, managed to rotate price beautifully and rally over 130 pips last week! Furthermore, according to the weekly timeframe, we could see the pair extend up to as far as weekly supply at 0.7897-0.7813.
Crossing down to the daily timeframe, we can see that last week’s advance was also bolstered by a daily support level plotted at 0.7505 and a daily inverted pin-bar formation. The rally from this neighborhood transported the daily candles up to a daily supply printed at 0.7695-0.7657, which, as you can see, held price lower on Friday and broke the week’s four-day bullish phase. The robust gains in commodities and Australia’s firm employment growth were, alongside higher-timeframe technical support, key catalysts behind AUD strength last week.
Following a successful retest of November’s opening level seen on the H4 timeframe at 0.7693, the pair extended gains in early Europe on Friday and challenged H4 resistance at 0.7693. Despite this, the response from the noted H4 resistance level was somewhat explosive, sending H4 price back below Nov’s open level and into the hands of a H4 broken Quasimodo line at 0.7639 by the week’s end.
Market direction:
A decisive H4 close beyond the current H4 broken Quasimodo line would likely do two things. Firstly, it could open up downside to at least the 0.76 handle, and secondly it may help confirm bearish strength from the aforesaid daily supply. Be that as it may, selling this move is awkward knowing that weekly price recently chalked up aggressive gains from a defined weekly support zone! This, at least in the eyes of a technical trader, makes it a difficult market to trade at the moment.
Data points to consider: AUD mid-year economic and fiscal outlook at 1.15am GMT.
Areas worthy of attention:
Supports: weekly channel support extended from the low 0.6827; weekly AB=CD 161.8% Fib ext. point situated at 0.7496; 0.7505; 0.7639.
Resistances: 0.7659; 0.7695-0.7657.
Weekly closing price: 0.7640
A small area seen comprised of a weekly channel support extended from the low 0.6827, a weekly 50.0% value at 0.7475 taken from the high 0.8125 and a nice-looking weekly AB=CD (see black arrows) 161.8% Fib ext. point situated at 0.7496, managed to rotate price beautifully and rally over 130 pips last week! Furthermore, according to the weekly timeframe, we could see the pair extend up to as far as weekly supply at 0.7897-0.7813.
Crossing down to the daily timeframe, we can see that last week’s advance was also bolstered by a daily support level plotted at 0.7505 and a daily inverted pin-bar formation. The rally from this neighborhood transported the daily candles up to a daily supply printed at 0.7695-0.7657, which, as you can see, held price lower on Friday and broke the week’s four-day bullish phase. The robust gains in commodities and Australia’s firm employment growth were, alongside higher-timeframe technical support, key catalysts behind AUD strength last week.
Following a successful retest of November’s opening level seen on the H4 timeframe at 0.7693, the pair extended gains in early Europe on Friday and challenged H4 resistance at 0.7693. Despite this, the response from the noted H4 resistance level was somewhat explosive, sending H4 price back below Nov’s open level and into the hands of a H4 broken Quasimodo line at 0.7639 by the week’s end.
Market direction:
A decisive H4 close beyond the current H4 broken Quasimodo line would likely do two things. Firstly, it could open up downside to at least the 0.76 handle, and secondly it may help confirm bearish strength from the aforesaid daily supply. Be that as it may, selling this move is awkward knowing that weekly price recently chalked up aggressive gains from a defined weekly support zone! This, at least in the eyes of a technical trader, makes it a difficult market to trade at the moment.
Data points to consider: AUD mid-year economic and fiscal outlook at 1.15am GMT.
Areas worthy of attention:
Supports: weekly channel support extended from the low 0.6827; weekly AB=CD 161.8% Fib ext. point situated at 0.7496; 0.7505; 0.7639.
Resistances: 0.7659; 0.7695-0.7657.
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