🔥 AUD/USD TRADE PLAN
📅 Date: 17 April 2025
🔖 Plan Type:
Dual-Sided Swing Setup
→ Bearish Reversal (Active)
→ Bullish Re-entry Setup (Not Yet Active)
📈 Bias & Trade Type:
Primary Bias: 🔻 Bearish Reversal from Supply (LTF weakness forming)
Secondary Bias: 🔼 Bullish Re-engagement from deeper HTF OB zones
🔰 Confidence Level:
Sell Plan: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) – Active structure + rejection forming
Buy Plan: ⭐⭐⭐ (70%) – Pending price retrace to HTF demand
📌 CURRENT TRADE STATUS:
AUD/USD is trading at 0.6337, just under intra supply zone (0.6345–0.6365)
✅ Sell Setup = Active: Price showing rejection, divergence forming on M15–H1
❌ Buy Setup = Not yet valid: Lower zone untested
⚠️ If price consolidates without clean rejection or BOS → Neutral zone
📍 ENTRY ZONES:
🔴 SELL PLAN – Bearish Reversal
🟥 Primary Sell Zone: 0.6345 – 0.6375
→ (M15–H1 bearish OB + imbalance fill + premium structure zone)
🔁 Confirmation: LTF bearish engulfing, divergence, or wick re-entry below 0.6345
🟥 Secondary Sell Zone: 0.6390 – 0.6415
→ (Unmitigated H4 imbalance top + structure sweep zone)
🔁 Entry only on rejection with wick trap or supply re-entry
❗ Stop Loss: Above 0.6435
→ Invalidates HTF bearish scenario, breaks OB stack
🎯 Take Profits:
🎯 TP1: 0.6280 → Local support cluster
🎯 TP2: 0.6235 → H4 demand + FVG
🎯 TP3: 0.6205 → Weekly OB tap zone (HTF liquidity pocket)
🟢 BUY PLAN – Bullish Continuation Setup
🟩 Primary Buy Zone: 0.6230 – 0.6265
→ (Clean demand block + unfilled FVG + previous BOS)
🔁 Confirmation: Bullish LTF reclaim + OB absorption
🟨 Secondary Buy Zone: 0.6175 – 0.6205
→ (Weekly OB sweep zone + deeper liquidity trap)
🔁 Entry only with wick + D1 support reclaim
❗ Stop Loss: Below 0.6150
→ Invalidates HTF bullish structure
🎯 Take Profits:
🎯 TP1: 0.6320 → Supply gap re-entry
🎯 TP2: 0.6370 → Previous high + fair value
🎯 TP3: 0.6425 → Weekly resistance / liquidity wick
🧠 CONFLUENCE SNAPSHOT:
🔻 Bearish Setup Confluences:
✅ OB rejection zone (H1–H4 supply)
✅ Price hit premium zone with no follow-through
✅ M15–H1 divergence & wick exhaustion
✅ Trendline break signs + weakening upside momentum
✅ Macro USD stabilization adds weight
🔼 Bullish Setup Confluences:
✅ Unmitigated HTF demand zone (0.6230–0.6265)
✅ Prior BOS with imbalance left behind
✅ USD still structurally soft overall
⚠️ Await volume spike + LTF reclaim to activate
📏 Risk–Reward Estimate:
Sell Setup: Up to 1:3.5 depending on entry precision
Buy Setup: Up to 1:4.0 if from deeper OB
🧠 Management Guidelines:
📍 Move SL to BE after TP1
📍 Scale partials at TP1/TP2
📍 Leave 25–30% to run for HTF expansion
🔁 Re-entry optional if BOS confirmed again from OB
🌐 Fundamentals:
AUD supported by China resilience & risk-on rebound
USD volatile post CPI but showing short-term recovery signs
No major red-tier events today, but Fed speakers + risk sentiment pivotal
⏳ Validity:
48 hours from trigger or until OB structure is invalidated
📋 Final Summary:
AUD/USD currently showing signs of short-term exhaustion at supply. A well-structured bearish reversal setup is live with clean entry zones and TP targets. HTF bullish scenario may activate only upon a deeper retracement to unfilled demand zones. Confirmation critical. Trade both sides if confluence triggers separately.
📅 Date: 17 April 2025
🔖 Plan Type:
Dual-Sided Swing Setup
→ Bearish Reversal (Active)
→ Bullish Re-entry Setup (Not Yet Active)
📈 Bias & Trade Type:
Primary Bias: 🔻 Bearish Reversal from Supply (LTF weakness forming)
Secondary Bias: 🔼 Bullish Re-engagement from deeper HTF OB zones
🔰 Confidence Level:
Sell Plan: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) – Active structure + rejection forming
Buy Plan: ⭐⭐⭐ (70%) – Pending price retrace to HTF demand
📌 CURRENT TRADE STATUS:
AUD/USD is trading at 0.6337, just under intra supply zone (0.6345–0.6365)
✅ Sell Setup = Active: Price showing rejection, divergence forming on M15–H1
❌ Buy Setup = Not yet valid: Lower zone untested
⚠️ If price consolidates without clean rejection or BOS → Neutral zone
📍 ENTRY ZONES:
🔴 SELL PLAN – Bearish Reversal
🟥 Primary Sell Zone: 0.6345 – 0.6375
→ (M15–H1 bearish OB + imbalance fill + premium structure zone)
🔁 Confirmation: LTF bearish engulfing, divergence, or wick re-entry below 0.6345
🟥 Secondary Sell Zone: 0.6390 – 0.6415
→ (Unmitigated H4 imbalance top + structure sweep zone)
🔁 Entry only on rejection with wick trap or supply re-entry
❗ Stop Loss: Above 0.6435
→ Invalidates HTF bearish scenario, breaks OB stack
🎯 Take Profits:
🎯 TP1: 0.6280 → Local support cluster
🎯 TP2: 0.6235 → H4 demand + FVG
🎯 TP3: 0.6205 → Weekly OB tap zone (HTF liquidity pocket)
🟢 BUY PLAN – Bullish Continuation Setup
🟩 Primary Buy Zone: 0.6230 – 0.6265
→ (Clean demand block + unfilled FVG + previous BOS)
🔁 Confirmation: Bullish LTF reclaim + OB absorption
🟨 Secondary Buy Zone: 0.6175 – 0.6205
→ (Weekly OB sweep zone + deeper liquidity trap)
🔁 Entry only with wick + D1 support reclaim
❗ Stop Loss: Below 0.6150
→ Invalidates HTF bullish structure
🎯 Take Profits:
🎯 TP1: 0.6320 → Supply gap re-entry
🎯 TP2: 0.6370 → Previous high + fair value
🎯 TP3: 0.6425 → Weekly resistance / liquidity wick
🧠 CONFLUENCE SNAPSHOT:
🔻 Bearish Setup Confluences:
✅ OB rejection zone (H1–H4 supply)
✅ Price hit premium zone with no follow-through
✅ M15–H1 divergence & wick exhaustion
✅ Trendline break signs + weakening upside momentum
✅ Macro USD stabilization adds weight
🔼 Bullish Setup Confluences:
✅ Unmitigated HTF demand zone (0.6230–0.6265)
✅ Prior BOS with imbalance left behind
✅ USD still structurally soft overall
⚠️ Await volume spike + LTF reclaim to activate
📏 Risk–Reward Estimate:
Sell Setup: Up to 1:3.5 depending on entry precision
Buy Setup: Up to 1:4.0 if from deeper OB
🧠 Management Guidelines:
📍 Move SL to BE after TP1
📍 Scale partials at TP1/TP2
📍 Leave 25–30% to run for HTF expansion
🔁 Re-entry optional if BOS confirmed again from OB
🌐 Fundamentals:
AUD supported by China resilience & risk-on rebound
USD volatile post CPI but showing short-term recovery signs
No major red-tier events today, but Fed speakers + risk sentiment pivotal
⏳ Validity:
48 hours from trigger or until OB structure is invalidated
📋 Final Summary:
AUD/USD currently showing signs of short-term exhaustion at supply. A well-structured bearish reversal setup is live with clean entry zones and TP targets. HTF bullish scenario may activate only upon a deeper retracement to unfilled demand zones. Confirmation critical. Trade both sides if confluence triggers separately.
Note
Small correction for the Buy Trade Plan:📍 Secondary Buy Zone: 0.6150 – 0.6185
(Liquidity flush zone under key HTF OB + reversal confluence)
🔁 Entry only after reclaim of 0.6200 and breakout retest
❗ Stop Loss: Below 0.6130
(Invalidation of HTF demand + BOS invalidation)
🎯 Take Profits:
🎯 TP1: 0.6335 → H4 structure high
🎯 TP2: 0.6385 → Prior OB + imbalance retest
🎯 TP3: 0.6440 → D1 inefficiency fill
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.