AU Bears "Head" Down to Target .6570
Updated
Here I have AUD/USD on the Daily Chart!
From Friday's High @ .67672 to its Low @ .66597, we can see we get the Confirmation of a strong reversal pattern with the Break of the Neckline of the Head & Shoulders!
Now what I'd like to see off the same High and Low of Friday is Price give us a 38.2% Retracement of the Low & Pullback to test the Neckline for potential Sell Entries.
( .67008 - .6697 )
Swing High of Head to Neckline = 126.9 Pips
Neckline - 126.9 = .6570 (Target)
Fundamentals:
AUD's undoing comes from a mix of a rise in Unemployment to 4.2% and Retail Sales ending August coming in @ 0%
With the horrible run of jobs reports for the USD to start September, it managed to recover to end the week and give the idea that a 50 bps Rate Cut is less likely sitting at a 30% change and a 25 bps Rate Cut more likely at a 70% chance at the Sept 18th meeting.
-RBA Interest Rate sits @ 4.35%
-Fed Interest Rate sits @ 5.5%
This upcoming week will be VERY news heavy for USD seeing as there is:
-Core CPI, CPI m & y on Wednesday, Sept. 11th
-Core PPI/ PPI m/m & Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Sept 12th!
From Friday's High @ .67672 to its Low @ .66597, we can see we get the Confirmation of a strong reversal pattern with the Break of the Neckline of the Head & Shoulders!
Now what I'd like to see off the same High and Low of Friday is Price give us a 38.2% Retracement of the Low & Pullback to test the Neckline for potential Sell Entries.
( .67008 - .6697 )
Swing High of Head to Neckline = 126.9 Pips
Neckline - 126.9 = .6570 (Target)
Fundamentals:
AUD's undoing comes from a mix of a rise in Unemployment to 4.2% and Retail Sales ending August coming in @ 0%
With the horrible run of jobs reports for the USD to start September, it managed to recover to end the week and give the idea that a 50 bps Rate Cut is less likely sitting at a 30% change and a 25 bps Rate Cut more likely at a 70% chance at the Sept 18th meeting.
-RBA Interest Rate sits @ 4.35%
-Fed Interest Rate sits @ 5.5%
This upcoming week will be VERY news heavy for USD seeing as there is:
-Core CPI, CPI m & y on Wednesday, Sept. 11th
-Core PPI/ PPI m/m & Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Sept 12th!
Note
Another piece to the
AUDUSD puzzle is 
TIO1!
Australia is the #1 Globally Exporter of Iron and #2 in Coal which are both important components in making Steel.
This decline we see in
TIO1! isn't so much because a lack of Supply, but of Demand where China, being the World's Top Consumer of Steel, has seen "weakening in their manufacturing activity" and "foresee Iron Ore prices to fall further amid subdued demand."
tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2024:newsml_L1N3KO05F:0-dalian-iron-ore-near-one-year-low-posts-steepest-weekly-fall-in-nearly-six-months/
How does this impact AUD?
-With Iron Ore being Australia's most valuable commodity exported (accounting for nearly 50% of overall Australian exports) and the demand for said metal from the biggest consumer, China, is nonexistent, will create a scenario where the ~40k employed Australian Iron industry will be put in dismay and we will possibly continue to see this drive AUD prices down with it!
Trade active
Price pulled back to the 23.6% Fib level @ .66851 and showed some inability to press higher!
-23.6% also aligns with the Low of the False Breakout of the Neckline from the Second Test.
Sell Entry @ .6685
SL @ .6715
Trade closed manually
Price has started to consolidate at the .6640 area and showing Bullish signs.Trade active
Had a Sell Order waiting for price to make a pull back from the Low to finally test the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern!
Sell Entry @ .66946 ( 50% Retracement)
SL @ 6710
Trade closed manually
USD has lost all strength, closing sell trades!
Novi_FIbonacci
Telegram - t.me/+l3fTcsZu91ZiZDkx
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