I hope you are all doing well today. It is Monday and the start of a brand new week. Let's smash those trades this week!
Today I am looking at AUD/USD on the 4-hour time frame.
We have an interesting double-bottom pattern playing out.
I say interesting because the second bottom of the pattern wicked quite a bit lower than the first peak. Usually, I wouldn’t call that a double bottom but because of the clear divergence we see across the MACD, it enticed me enough to wait for an entry on this setup.
Notice how the histogram and the MA lines across the MACD are both sloping upwards. This indicates true divergence as we can see that the sellers or the bears have been weakening, so we were waiting for the bulls to come back in and take control.
I have highlighted the neckline in yellow. I wanted to see a break and close above this yellow neckline zone, which we clearly can see. Now I am waiting for a retrace back into the neckline to confirm that this area has been flipped from resistance to support. My long entry will be triggered once we see that retrace.
I have used the trend-based fib extension to find my two targets. Notice on the chart how these two areas line up perfectly with previous areas of support and resistance. Target one is around the 0.6915 price level and target two is around the 0.699 price level.
Remember, depending where you place your entry and your stop will result in your risk to reward fluctuating. I always aim for a minimum of one to two risk to reward. If we can get more than that’s great! But make sure your risk management is carefully monitored. Don’t risk more than needed. There are always further opportunities.
So, let's see what happens with this one. As usual, I like to see lower bearish volume to accompany the retrace, otherwise, this bullish move could potentially just be a fakeout and we do not want to be caught on the wrong side of the trend. We are seeing some green today across the forex board so let's see if we can capitalize on these moves. I usually like to wait for Tuesday before jumping into any positions, but that clear divergence across the MACD interests me. However, if that retrace does not happen then so be it. We move on to the next one.
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