Off 0.69 we could be heading for a H1 rising wedge break
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, as well as June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a somewhat vulnerable tone at the moment, despite the base benefitting from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since June 11 smothered support at 0.6931, the base has proved reasonably worthy resistance, with Wednesday swinging lower from the base and Thursday offering a stationary presence.
In case of a break to the upside here, two trendline resistances inhabit territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671). Support at 0.6755 also remains in position to the downside, with a break throwing light on the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6664, a dynamic value in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Wednesday’s tumble proposes the possibility of a double-top pattern off 0.6977, with a neckline formed at 0.6807 (blue arrows).
Breaking the neckline, however, entails overpowering demand at 0.6773/0.6814, a familiar area boasting a connection with a 38.2% Fib level at 0.6808.
H1 timeframe:
Heading into London trade Thursday, after revisiting 0.6850, the H1 candles began chalking up a possible rising wedge pattern between 0.6847/0.6888.
The 100-period simple moving average , currently at 0.6894, may be viewed as the next resistance on the H1 timeframe, circling close by the 0.69 level. Combined, these levels could be adequate enough to welcome a move lower, one that penetrates the lower limit of the current rising wedge .
Support targets outside of the aforesaid pattern can be seen at 0.6850, closely intersecting with two trendline supports (0.6976/0.6776).
Structures of Interest:
Combined, monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664, daily resistance at 0.6931 and room for H4 to drop into demand at 0.6773/0.6814 could swing prices lower from 0.69 today, breaching the H1 rising wedge pattern.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.