Long USD short AUD due to long term growth constraint
Updated
Long USD
Governor: Jerome H. Powell
Monetary Policy: Monetary policy in the United States comprises the Federal Reserve's actions and communications to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates--the economic goals the Congress has instructed the Federal Reserve to pursue.
o Sentiment: Bullish
o Rate Decision: 1%
o Current Rate: 0.33%
o Rate Differential: 1.67%
o Inflation Target: 1%
o Current Inflation Rate: 8.54%
o Statement Summarized: The US Fed will make MoM interest rate adjustments if inflation continues to persist, Unemployment maybe down however certain labor participates refuse to work in supply, logistics and or overall labor primarily due to the pay and work conditions
o Short Term Bias: U.S. Retail Sales will provide a adequate entry due to the higher the average volatility that will take place on that day due to the consensus that sales will be down, Indicating a temporally deprecation of the USD dollar.
o The Average Daily Range (ADR): 20 Pip
o Possible Opportunities 1: Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending (Consumer Staples) and business fixed investment (Bonds) remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially (Indicator 1- Interest Rate Hike). Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures (Labor Constraints and wage increases).
o Possible Opportunities 2: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain (Fear, reserve currency). The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions (Labor Constraints and Zero Covid Policy). The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks
o Possible Opportunities 3: The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will consider a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Short AUD
o Governor: Philip Lowe
o Monetary: In determining monetary policy, the Bank has a duty to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. To achieve these statutory objectives, the Bank has an ‘inflation target’ and seeks to keep Consumer Price Inflation in the economy to 2–3 per cent, on average, over the medium term. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money and encourages strong and sustainable growth in the economy over the longer term.
o Sentiment: Neutral
o Rate Decision: RBA is primarily concerned with CPI
o Current Rate: 0.35%
o Rate Differential: %
o Inflation Target: 2-3% Average
o Current Inflation Rate: 5.1%
o Rate Differential: 2-3%
o Statement Summarized: RBA is primarily concerned with bringing down inflation however it will not add to its QE policy nor will it reverse its holdings of bonds on their Balance Sheet
o Balance Sheet activity: Will not sell current QE assets not are they reinvesting earnings. (Holding)
o Market Sentiment: (Two weeks of charts from the start date after Fed meeting)
o Short Term Bias: (Last for 1 day great for entry and exit)
o The Average Daily Range (ADR):
o Possible Opportunities 1: The outlook for economic growth in Australia also remains positive, although there are ongoing uncertainties about the global economy arising from: the ongoing disruptions from COVID-19, especially in China; the war in Ukraine; and declining consumer purchasing power from higher inflation. The central forecast is for Australian GDP to grow by 4¼ per cent over 2022 and 2 per cent over 2023. Household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape, an upswing in business investment is underway and there is a large pipeline of construction work to be completed. Macroeconomic policy settings remain supportive of growth and national income is being boosted by higher commodity prices.
Governor: Jerome H. Powell
Monetary Policy: Monetary policy in the United States comprises the Federal Reserve's actions and communications to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates--the economic goals the Congress has instructed the Federal Reserve to pursue.
o Sentiment: Bullish
o Rate Decision: 1%
o Current Rate: 0.33%
o Rate Differential: 1.67%
o Inflation Target: 1%
o Current Inflation Rate: 8.54%
o Statement Summarized: The US Fed will make MoM interest rate adjustments if inflation continues to persist, Unemployment maybe down however certain labor participates refuse to work in supply, logistics and or overall labor primarily due to the pay and work conditions
o Short Term Bias: U.S. Retail Sales will provide a adequate entry due to the higher the average volatility that will take place on that day due to the consensus that sales will be down, Indicating a temporally deprecation of the USD dollar.
o The Average Daily Range (ADR): 20 Pip
o Possible Opportunities 1: Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending (Consumer Staples) and business fixed investment (Bonds) remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially (Indicator 1- Interest Rate Hike). Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures (Labor Constraints and wage increases).
o Possible Opportunities 2: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain (Fear, reserve currency). The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions (Labor Constraints and Zero Covid Policy). The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks
o Possible Opportunities 3: The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will consider a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Short AUD
o Governor: Philip Lowe
o Monetary: In determining monetary policy, the Bank has a duty to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. To achieve these statutory objectives, the Bank has an ‘inflation target’ and seeks to keep Consumer Price Inflation in the economy to 2–3 per cent, on average, over the medium term. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money and encourages strong and sustainable growth in the economy over the longer term.
o Sentiment: Neutral
o Rate Decision: RBA is primarily concerned with CPI
o Current Rate: 0.35%
o Rate Differential: %
o Inflation Target: 2-3% Average
o Current Inflation Rate: 5.1%
o Rate Differential: 2-3%
o Statement Summarized: RBA is primarily concerned with bringing down inflation however it will not add to its QE policy nor will it reverse its holdings of bonds on their Balance Sheet
o Balance Sheet activity: Will not sell current QE assets not are they reinvesting earnings. (Holding)
o Market Sentiment: (Two weeks of charts from the start date after Fed meeting)
o Short Term Bias: (Last for 1 day great for entry and exit)
o The Average Daily Range (ADR):
o Possible Opportunities 1: The outlook for economic growth in Australia also remains positive, although there are ongoing uncertainties about the global economy arising from: the ongoing disruptions from COVID-19, especially in China; the war in Ukraine; and declining consumer purchasing power from higher inflation. The central forecast is for Australian GDP to grow by 4¼ per cent over 2022 and 2 per cent over 2023. Household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape, an upswing in business investment is underway and there is a large pipeline of construction work to be completed. Macroeconomic policy settings remain supportive of growth and national income is being boosted by higher commodity prices.
Trade closed manually
I was wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!! AHHHH LOL STILL LEARNING. I'll get it.Comment
Wasn't wrong just way early and did not use a catalyst before entering market.Comment
Thanks I just noticed your reply and yes HAHA i learned that you need a catalyst when entering trades based on fundamentals or your gonna hold a position longer than you wanted
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