Using a top-down approach this morning, we can see that weekly bulls look to be taking back some control within the walls of the support area seen at 0.7849-0.7752. This zone has a strong history and held well as support during the month of August, thus there’s a good chance that we may see history repeat itself here. In conjunction with the current weekly zone, a strong daily demand base logged at 0.7786-0.7838 is seen painted within its boundaries. Should the commodity currency remain bid from this demand, the next port of call on the daily scale will likely be the resistance level located at 0.7955.
Across the pond on the H4 timeframe, the 0.78 handle remained well-bid during yesterday’s London session, despite mildly faking to a low of 0.7785. As of current prices, we see very little active supply right now – even the 0.7850 mid-level resistance looks exhausted.
Suggestions: In light of where the higher timeframes are trading from at the moment, wait for H4 price to CLOSE above the nearby mid-level resistance at 0.7850 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter, targeting the 0.79 handle, followed closely by a broken Quasimodo line at 0.7917 as initial take-profit levels.
Data points to consider: US ADP non-farm employment change at 1.15pm; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm, followed closely by Fed Chair Janet Yellen taking the stage at 8.15pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Watch for H4 price to engulf 0.7850 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (waiting for a H4 bullish candle to form in the shape of a full or near-full-bodied candle following the retest is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).