ridethepig | AUD Strategy Notes
Updated
The main and secondary functions of the next swing. How it behaves, when it strikes and becomes impulsive, and how it does when put under pressure from the defender.
The function of the zig-zag and impulsive wave is to immobilise our opponent. The retrace is a tree-shaker, it itself tends to be very flexible. And yet it is common for retail to display signs of considerable over-exposure and lack of flexbility. Namely:
(1) From the Macro chart:
(2) A potential CB short-circuit:
It seems that on the longer term charts AUD has already packed its bag and set out on its travels.
(a) the journey looks promising; buy the dips and look to cover positions into resistance.
(b) if it returns to the starting point of the journey to squeeze early buyers
(c) if RBA is in a position to take care of the monetary side.
It is crystal clear that RBA have previously hinted at the idea of a Feb cut, the protection here comes from the RBNZ surprise hold. Although it may not seem so, the RBNZ lead is of great importance; it shows how little elasticity the RBA & RBNZ have. For the details on the cross I keep digging deeper in AUDNZD, we are approaching key value levels and RBNZ has shown signs of distress with NZD at this level:
In this simplest of all swings, AUD sellers will take a short holiday and allow the break of 0.692x. There is a clear head and shoulders technical setup with 0.684x neckline. Should we lose these lows (unlikely) then the move towards 0.675x is unlocked. Assuming employment data holds on Wednesday then RBA will remain on hold and market will be caught out of position.
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Jump into the conversation with your charts, ideas and questions!
The function of the zig-zag and impulsive wave is to immobilise our opponent. The retrace is a tree-shaker, it itself tends to be very flexible. And yet it is common for retail to display signs of considerable over-exposure and lack of flexbility. Namely:
(1) From the Macro chart:
(2) A potential CB short-circuit:
It seems that on the longer term charts AUD has already packed its bag and set out on its travels.
(a) the journey looks promising; buy the dips and look to cover positions into resistance.
(b) if it returns to the starting point of the journey to squeeze early buyers
(c) if RBA is in a position to take care of the monetary side.
It is crystal clear that RBA have previously hinted at the idea of a Feb cut, the protection here comes from the RBNZ surprise hold. Although it may not seem so, the RBNZ lead is of great importance; it shows how little elasticity the RBA & RBNZ have. For the details on the cross I keep digging deeper in AUDNZD, we are approaching key value levels and RBNZ has shown signs of distress with NZD at this level:
In this simplest of all swings, AUD sellers will take a short holiday and allow the break of 0.692x. There is a clear head and shoulders technical setup with 0.684x neckline. Should we lose these lows (unlikely) then the move towards 0.675x is unlocked. Assuming employment data holds on Wednesday then RBA will remain on hold and market will be caught out of position.
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Jump into the conversation with your charts, ideas and questions!
Note
AUD and NZD tripped overnight via fears on the Coronavirus, although not expecting much of a follow-through in the coming sessions. I am positioned in macro portfolios for risk to take a backseat as interest in AUD and NZD longs continues to grow. AUD employment tonight is under the 🔬 as it will dictate the next move from RBA in Feb. Those following on Tradngview will know I covered AUDUSD shorts and tracking for overshoots (5.1%) in the employment rate to provide signs of a bounce back into 0.690x.Note
AUD and NZD both entering into play overnight - Firstly AUD cracking the 0.685x support ahead of 🔑 unemployment data although shorts are showing signs of covering here as understandably do not want to get caught at late levels. I am tracking for 5.2% in the U rate, any misses will short-circuit the AUD flows and trigger RBA capitulation. To the topside 0.687x is soft resistance. NZD will move as collateral as markets await CPI data.Trade closed: stop reached
Coronavirus taking charge of the flows and forced those trading AUD employment to cover lower. A bad call that was pointless to hold after the initial impact.
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