Long term Aussie Idea
In June 2013 (Green circle) price broke below the 200 EMA and an important support level 0.9650. Price made a low and retraced back up to retest this key support now turned resistance in October 2013 - failing to break above this level and creating a lower high. Since then, price has been in a downtrend creating lower highs (yellow box's) and lower lows (blue box's.)
For a nearly a year now, price has been consolidating between two levels - 0.7750 resistance and 0.7150 support (highlighted by red box.)
Right now I am neutral. I do expect price to reach 0.7750 very soon of writing this. Afterwards price can either break out of our 0.7750 resistance or it could reverse back down to the 0.7150 support.
If price breaks our 0.7750 resistance - I am bullish. First target would be 0.8050 - 0.8100 (300-350 pips.) This is due to the price in June 2015 failing to break our 0.8050 support turned resistance - creating a lower high (yellow box.)
Also if you apply a fibonacci retracement tool. From the low in January 2016 (A) to the high in mid April 2016 (B) - price has stalled twice at the 61.8% support level (C) first at the end of May 2016 and second at the end of the 2016 year (double bottom pattern). D1 extension -27% is 0.8100 which lines up nicely with the resistance levels mentioned.
If the 0.7750 resistance level holds and we see a reversal, I will be bearish. First target will be the 0.7150 support. If this support is broken - second target will be 0.6850 - 0.6900 as price has stalled at this area in late 2015. If price breaks this 0.6850 support, next target will be 0.6000 - 0.6250. This is because price found this support back in late 2008 / early 2009.
Also if you apply the fibonacci retracement tool from the high in May 2015 (A) to the low in January 2016 (B) - price has been stalling and failing to break the 61.8% resistance level (C). D2 extension -61% lines up perfectly with the 0.6000 support level.
My overall bias on this pair is BEARISH as price has been in a downtrend since 2013 and it is advised to trade with the trend - not against it. I believe the 0.7750 is a lower high level and price could see 0.6000 area creating new lower lows (if 0.6850 support is broken.)
Also fundamentals hinting USD strength in 2017 as there are rumoured rate hikes from the federal reserve which strengthen the USD which will cause this pair to fall in price.
Again we will have to wait and see what price does around the 0.7750 resistance. Break or bounce. Be patient and ready to execute either way.
For a nearly a year now, price has been consolidating between two levels - 0.7750 resistance and 0.7150 support (highlighted by red box.)
Right now I am neutral. I do expect price to reach 0.7750 very soon of writing this. Afterwards price can either break out of our 0.7750 resistance or it could reverse back down to the 0.7150 support.
If price breaks our 0.7750 resistance - I am bullish. First target would be 0.8050 - 0.8100 (300-350 pips.) This is due to the price in June 2015 failing to break our 0.8050 support turned resistance - creating a lower high (yellow box.)
Also if you apply a fibonacci retracement tool. From the low in January 2016 (A) to the high in mid April 2016 (B) - price has stalled twice at the 61.8% support level (C) first at the end of May 2016 and second at the end of the 2016 year (double bottom pattern). D1 extension -27% is 0.8100 which lines up nicely with the resistance levels mentioned.
If the 0.7750 resistance level holds and we see a reversal, I will be bearish. First target will be the 0.7150 support. If this support is broken - second target will be 0.6850 - 0.6900 as price has stalled at this area in late 2015. If price breaks this 0.6850 support, next target will be 0.6000 - 0.6250. This is because price found this support back in late 2008 / early 2009.
Also if you apply the fibonacci retracement tool from the high in May 2015 (A) to the low in January 2016 (B) - price has been stalling and failing to break the 61.8% resistance level (C). D2 extension -61% lines up perfectly with the 0.6000 support level.
My overall bias on this pair is BEARISH as price has been in a downtrend since 2013 and it is advised to trade with the trend - not against it. I believe the 0.7750 is a lower high level and price could see 0.6000 area creating new lower lows (if 0.6850 support is broken.)
Also fundamentals hinting USD strength in 2017 as there are rumoured rate hikes from the federal reserve which strengthen the USD which will cause this pair to fall in price.
Again we will have to wait and see what price does around the 0.7750 resistance. Break or bounce. Be patient and ready to execute either way.
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