AUDUSD @ Crispy Potato

02/04/22
THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR

DAYS
PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BEAR

This produced a Bear almost spinning top candle, Tuesday a mallet-style bull hammer, the Doji on Wednesday with no bottom tail, then a Bear candle, small tails on either side, and the Friday a spinning top again. So what does this translate to? Well, all the candles were very horizontal. Whatever gains were made, were then eaten the next day. This chart was stuck at complete equilibrium. I checked the OBV on the 2hr chart, and it is slightly trending down, meaning the initial open on Monday has a good probability of opening lower. The day OBV is trending up. Its current level is similar to the last time it rallied down. On another note, this week the price stalled at a previous high back in October 2021. This is the outer section of a range that commence back in Jan 2021. Historically the price has fallen without too much hesitation when at this point. Given all of this, it tells a picture that a fall has a higher probability this week. A clean solid Bull candle would jeopardize this potential. My initial thoughts would result in me waiting to see how the first candles open.

WEEK
PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BEAR

The week was a Bear Doji at a key point where you don't want one for a Bull rally to continue. The volume was also reasonable considering it was a Doji. There is history where a Bear Doji has formed and continued upward but it is infrequent. It is followed by a Bear candle or a Bull hammer. The probability is higher for some Bear action this next week.

Note

The forecast was accurate but honestly, who of us would have had a stop loss going out that far....dam you pin bars!! :-)

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