If AUD/USD is going to bounce, it has to be now
Updated
Conditions for a weaker US dollar have been ripe, with calls for the RBA’s rate to have peaked at 4.1%, deteriorating data from China and ‘higher for longer’ calls for the Fed. And with that, we have seen some outlandish calls for the Aussie to fall to 50 and even 40c.
Perhaps those calls will turn out to be right. But the Aussie did not earn its name “the battler” for nothing, and we’ve not seen it dip below 50c in over twenty years. Furthermore, there are some indications that the downside could be limited and it could be due a bounce.
Last week’s nine-week low briefly traded beneath trend support, projected from the March 2020 low. Given it marked the pandemic low ahead of a bullish ‘liquidity injection’ fuelled rally, it is significant to say the least. But we also saw the RSI (2) reach overbought last week to warn of a near-term inflection point, and it fell for five consecutive weeks into those lows – a bearish sequence rarely beaten.
Of course, we have the Jackson Hole symposium with Jerome Powell’s speech being the usual highlight. If it is to peddle the ‘higher for longer narrative’, perhaps the US dollar can regain its footing and send AUD/USD back towards 64c. But even then, it ‘the battler’ may not simply roll over and die. But what if Powell is to deliver a less-hawkish-than-expected speech, following the weaker PMIs? Then we’ve expect some more Aussie bears to get squeezed, and help AUD/USD rebound further from that key trendline.
Perhaps those calls will turn out to be right. But the Aussie did not earn its name “the battler” for nothing, and we’ve not seen it dip below 50c in over twenty years. Furthermore, there are some indications that the downside could be limited and it could be due a bounce.
Last week’s nine-week low briefly traded beneath trend support, projected from the March 2020 low. Given it marked the pandemic low ahead of a bullish ‘liquidity injection’ fuelled rally, it is significant to say the least. But we also saw the RSI (2) reach overbought last week to warn of a near-term inflection point, and it fell for five consecutive weeks into those lows – a bearish sequence rarely beaten.
Of course, we have the Jackson Hole symposium with Jerome Powell’s speech being the usual highlight. If it is to peddle the ‘higher for longer narrative’, perhaps the US dollar can regain its footing and send AUD/USD back towards 64c. But even then, it ‘the battler’ may not simply roll over and die. But what if Powell is to deliver a less-hawkish-than-expected speech, following the weaker PMIs? Then we’ve expect some more Aussie bears to get squeezed, and help AUD/USD rebound further from that key trendline.
Note
So farm so good. Given AUD/USD managed to rebound from 64c despite a slightly more hawkish-than-expected speech by Jerome Powell, odds favour a deeper bounce for AUD/USD. Especially if incoming US data (such as GDP, ADP or NFP) misses estimates.
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