Before we get into it, can we all just acknowledge the fact that the Euro and the US Dollar is officially one-to-one. The last time this was seen was in 2002. Twenty years ago. It's quite something to see. We are living in interesting times. The DXY is still rocketing upwards. Other markets are falling. As a trader, we love volatility right. That’s our bread and butter. And because we trade constantly, we’re the first people to see these moves before the rest of the world finds out. I think we should remember not to take this ability for granted. You’ve worked hard to be where you are and thankfully if you are a consistently profitable day trader, then you can take advantage of price swings like this. The rest of the world cant. So, let's remember to be grateful every day.
Ok, let's move on to AUD/USD
We are on the 4-hour time frame. The price has been bearish and still is. However, we may have a Double top playing out in this time frame. As you can see I have placed two arrows indicating where the tops are. I have also highlighted the neckline in yellow. The price moved straight through this neckline and is currently sitting way below it. We have very strong bearish volume at the same time. So what I would like to see is the price slowly come back up to the neckline, which is also the previous Support flipped resistance. This is a zone that has a lot of interest so I'm happy with it being a neckline zone. Moving to Volume, we have seen nothing but bearish volume, but what I would like to see with that possible retrace up to the neckline, is bullish volume, but we don’t want overpowering bullish volume with the retrace because that could indicate a possible reversal and we would most likely be stopped out. So we want to see bullish volume lower than this previous impulsive bearish volume we have been seeing. Moving to the MACD, we have divergence across the two tops of the Double Top. We can see this on the Histogram. Buyers were weakening and this just confirms our bearish bias because as we are trading with the trend remember. So we are looking for opportunities to go short.
So on that note, let's watch and see what happens. I will be seeing you all on the next one. Hope you all have a great day!
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