Dark Times For The AUD
Looking at my chart, it's clear that since the beginning of the chart to Dec '13 has been in an overall ascending wedge with two notable deviations.
One deviation in 2000 where a short sharp descending wedge took the AUD to the lowest point in 2001 before finally getting back to the ascending wedge by October 2003.
In 2008 it again briefly dropped during the GFC and quickly by 2009 returned to the ascending wedge pattern.
By 2013 the AUD begin descending and attempting to retest what was the support line of the ascending pattern.
From 2014-Now it's clear that the AUD is in a descending pattern and has broken through the support line on the Monthly candle.
Where it all goes from here depends on what the Australia Federal government can do, but with the fundamentals of Australia questionable I don't have high hopes.
What do I mean ? simply Australia is a wealthy country on paper, but the bulk of most peoples wealth is tied up in the value of their real estate, which has been inflated to insane levels due to access to cheap credit and very generous capital gains tax laws.
Most Australians are heavily reliant on overdrafts, credit cards, store cars, finance that most simply don't hoard that much cash.
Many people have gone and borrowed 100%+ the value of their properties, (I can assure you that bank valuers for real estate transactions are a fraud and they NEVER under value a property, it's an everyone wins game much like getting the real estate agent to recommend you a building inspector.)
Thing is that Australia outside of exporting it's mining resources, agriculture, tourism and education doesn't actually produce or make much anymore, much of the economy revolves arounds services.
Given current events with the Coronavirus epidemic and global shut down, this is going to paralyze the Australian economy if it continues for long.
Back in 2008 Australia was fortunate to have a cash reserve to weather the storm, this time around they are far more vulnerable with the national wealth build on a house of cards.
One deviation in 2000 where a short sharp descending wedge took the AUD to the lowest point in 2001 before finally getting back to the ascending wedge by October 2003.
In 2008 it again briefly dropped during the GFC and quickly by 2009 returned to the ascending wedge pattern.
By 2013 the AUD begin descending and attempting to retest what was the support line of the ascending pattern.
From 2014-Now it's clear that the AUD is in a descending pattern and has broken through the support line on the Monthly candle.
Where it all goes from here depends on what the Australia Federal government can do, but with the fundamentals of Australia questionable I don't have high hopes.
What do I mean ? simply Australia is a wealthy country on paper, but the bulk of most peoples wealth is tied up in the value of their real estate, which has been inflated to insane levels due to access to cheap credit and very generous capital gains tax laws.
Most Australians are heavily reliant on overdrafts, credit cards, store cars, finance that most simply don't hoard that much cash.
Many people have gone and borrowed 100%+ the value of their properties, (I can assure you that bank valuers for real estate transactions are a fraud and they NEVER under value a property, it's an everyone wins game much like getting the real estate agent to recommend you a building inspector.)
Thing is that Australia outside of exporting it's mining resources, agriculture, tourism and education doesn't actually produce or make much anymore, much of the economy revolves arounds services.
Given current events with the Coronavirus epidemic and global shut down, this is going to paralyze the Australian economy if it continues for long.
Back in 2008 Australia was fortunate to have a cash reserve to weather the storm, this time around they are far more vulnerable with the national wealth build on a house of cards.
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